摘要
金堂县地处沱江三河汇口,洪水频繁,因地区洪水组成不清楚,防洪面临突出问题,然而传统的规范分析方法具有明显的局限性,如何从洪水形成机理上精细化分析金堂县地区洪水组成是亟待解决的问题.基于ArcGIS软件平台,以三皇庙水文站以上沱江流域构建了分布式SWAT水文模型,对模型参数进行了率定和验证,根据《洪水情报预报规范》综合评价洪水模拟精度,利用2013~2020年的洪水模拟结果进行了系统分析,获得了金堂城区洪水的空间组成规律.结果表明:(1)构建的SWAT模型能够较好地模拟金堂城区洪水,评价指标纳什效率系数(NSE)均值0.87,确定性系数R;均值超过0.83,模拟误差精度达到洪水预报规范优良的等级;(2)在三河汇口沱江干流的洪水组成中,最大洪量多年平均情况为北河占73.41%,中河占17.98%,毗河占8.61%.(3)结合典型年洪水中北河、中河、毗河河口洪水过程与流域暴雨中心位置,得出全流域型暴雨引发洪水造成影响是最大的.其中北河洪水应为主要防治对象.
Jintang City is located at the confluence of three tributaries of the Tuojiang River and has confronted with flooding frequently.Due to a lack of fully understanding on the regional flood compositions, flood control of the Jintang City has caused serious problems.In addition, the traditional analysis method has obvious limitations.How to accurately analyze the mechanism of flood formation in Jintang City is an urgent issue to be solved.Based on the ArcGIS software, this paper constructed a distributed SWAT hydrological model in the Tuojiang River basin above the Sanhuangmiao hydrological station, and the parameters of the model were calibrated and verified consequently.According to the accuracy evaluation of flood simulation by the national standards of flood prediction, the flood simulation results from 2013 to 2020 were systematically evaluated and analyzed, and then the spatial compositions of floods in the Jintang City was obtained.The results indicated that:(1) the SWAT model constructed in this paper could simulate the urban floods of Jintang City satisfactorily.The mean value of the Nash efficiency coefficient(NSE) was 0.87 and the certainty coefficient R~2 was more than 0.83,which meant that the accuracy of the simulation reached the excellent level based on the flood forecasting standard.(2) In the flood composition of the main stream of Tuojiang River at the confluence of the three tributaries, the multi-year averaged maximum flood volume was that Beihe River accounted for 73.41%,Zhonghe River accounted for 17.98% and Pihe River accounted for 8.61%.(3) Combined with the flood process at the confluences of the Beihe River, Zhonghe River and Pihe River and the location of rainstorm center in the basin, it could be concluded that the flood caused by rainstorm in the whole basin had the greatest impact.Meanwhile, the flood of Beihe River should be the main object of the urban flood control in the Jintang City.
作者
敬熠
张卓
张新华
JING Yi;ZHANG Zhuo;ZHANG Xin-hua(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;School of Water Resource&Hydropower,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)
出处
《西南民族大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2022年第3期346-354,共9页
Journal of Southwest Minzu University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金(51879174)
横向项目:金堂县城区洪水空间组成规律研究(20H0423)。
关键词
金堂城区
SWAT模型
洪水模拟预报
洪水组成分析
Jintang urban area
SWAT model
flood simulation and forecasting
flood composition analysis
