摘要
目的分析中国胰腺癌2005—2016年的发病趋势及影响因素。方法摘录2008—2019年出版的《中国肿瘤登记年报》中胰腺癌发病数据,利用Joinpoint模型和负二项回归模型分别进行发病趋势、影响因素分析。结果2005—2016年中国胰腺癌标化发病率趋于稳定,其中2008—2014年年度变化百分比(APC)呈下降趋势(P<0.05)。城市地区高于乡村,城市变化起伏大,其中2008—2016年城市APC呈下降趋势(P<0.05),乡村相对平稳。男性胰腺癌标化发病率高于女性,且变化趋势一致,其中2008—2014年男性APC呈下降趋势(P<0.05)。<40岁胰腺癌发病率较低,≥40岁快速上升,在80~85岁时达到高峰。负二项结果显示城乡、年龄和性别是胰腺癌发病的影响因素(P<0.05)。结论2005—2016年中国胰腺癌标化发病率趋于稳定,城乡、年龄和性别是胰腺癌发病的影响因素。
Aim To analyze the incidence trends and influencing factors of pancreatic cancer in China from 2005 to 2016.Methods The incidence data of pancreatic cancer were extracted from The Annual Report of China Cancer Registry from 2008 to 2019.Joinpoint model and negative binomial regression model were used to analyze the trend and influencing factors,respectively.Results The normalized incidence of pancreatic cancer in China was stable from 2005 to 2016,and annual percent change(APC)decreased from 2008 to 2014(P<0.05).The urban area is higher than the rural area,and the urban change fluctuates greatly,urban APC shows a downward trend from 2008 to 2016(P<0.05),relatively stable in rural areas.The normalized incidence of pancreatic cancer in males was higher than that in females,and the trend was consistent,with male APC decreasing trend from 2008 to 2014(P<0.05).The incidence of pancreatic cancer was low in<40 years,rising rapidly in≥40 years old,and reaching a peak in 80-85 old years.The negative binomial result shows:urban and rural areas,age and gender were the influencing factors of pancreatic cancer incidence(P<0.05).Conclusion The standardized incidence of pancreatic cancer in China was stable from 2005 to 2016,urban and rural areas,age and gender were the influencing factors of pancreatic cancer incidence.
作者
张敏
徐杰茹
陈磊
陈悦
周维
让蔚清
ZHANG Min;XU Jieru;CHEN Lei;CHEN Yue;ZHOU Wei;RANG Weiqing(School of Public Health,Hengyang Medical School,University of South China,Hengyang,Hunan 421001,China)
出处
《中南医学科学杂志》
CAS
2022年第3期358-361,共4页
Medical Science Journal of Central South China
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(81673107)。
关键词
胰腺癌
肿瘤登记
发病趋势
影响因素
pancreatic cancer
tumor registration
incidence trend
influencing factor
