摘要
我国将碳达峰、碳中和纳入生态文明建设总体布局,电力在引领绿色发展中将发挥更加重要的作用。实施再电气化,实现能源生产侧“清洁替代”和能源消费侧“电能替代”,对我国如期实现碳达峰、碳中和目标具有重要意义。本文剖析了再电气化的核心内涵,结合基本国情及资源禀赋,提出以再电气化助力我国实现低碳发展,按照“终端能源需求—能源转换系统—一次能源结构”的研究框架,综合考虑经济、技术、政策、环境等要素,分析了不同情景下我国能源电力演变趋势,提出再电气化发展前景。研究结果表明,实施再电气化将有力推动实现碳中和目标,2060年非化石能源消费比重达80%以上、清洁能源发电量比重达90%、终端电能消费比重达70%。研究建议,一是统筹协调好各行业碳预算与减排路径,二是加快经济、产业结构调整,三是推动关键领域科技创新,四是完善电力市场、碳市场体系建设。
As carbon peak and carbon neutrality have been incorporated into the overall layout of China’s ecological civilization construction,electric power will play an increasingly important role in leading green development.Implementing re-electrification to realize clean substitution at the energy production side and electric energy substitution at the energy consumption side is significant for China to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality on schedule.In this article,we analyze the concept of re-electrification and propose to help China achieve low-carbon development with re-electrification considering the basic national conditions and resource endowment of the country.We analyze the evolution trend of energy and power in China under different scenarios using a research framework of terminal energy demand-energy conversion system-primary energy structure while considering the factors of economy,technology,policy,and environment.The development prospect of re-electrification is also proposed.The research results show that re-electrification will significantly promote carbon neutrality.In 2060,the proportions of non-fossil energy consumption,clean energy power generation,and terminal power consumption will reach 80%,90%,and 70%,respectively.Therefore,we suggest that China should(1)coordinate the carbon budget and emission reduction paths of various industries,(2)accelerate the adjustment of economic and industrial structures,(3)promote scientific and technological innovation in key fields,and(4)improve the policy systemfor power and carbon markets.
作者
舒印彪
谢典
赵良
高亚静
赵勇
周朝阳
Shu Yinbiao;Xie Dian;Zhao Liang;Gao Yajing;Zhao Yong;Zhou Chaoyang(China Huaneng Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100031,China;Energy Research Institute of China Huaneng Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100031,China)
出处
《中国工程科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第3期195-204,共10页
Strategic Study of CAE
基金
中国工程院咨询项目“我国碳达峰、碳中和战略及路径研究”(2021-HYZD-14)。
关键词
再电气化
碳中和
能源转型
电能替代
re-electrification
carbon neutrality
energy transition
electric energy substitution
