摘要
选用湖北省1999—2017年的经济增长与环境污染数据,基于VAR模型,通过平稳性检验,协整检验,脉冲响应分析和方差分解对经济增长与环境污染的动态关系进行实证检验.结果表明:在研究时段内,湖北省人均GDP增长与工业“三废”排放之间存在着长期稳定的相互关系.由脉冲响应图可知,两个变量系统相互间的影响表现为前期较强烈,中后期则影响趋缓;人均GDP增长的冲击对工业废固、工业废水的排放有负向抑制作用,对工业废气的排放有正向促进作用;工业废固、工业废气排放的冲击对人均GDP增长具有正向促进作用,工业废水排放的冲击对人均GDP增长具有负向抑制作用.人均GDP增长对工业废固、工业废气、工业废水的排放带动效果较弱;工业废固、工业废气的排放对人均GDP增长的带动效果较强,人均GDP增长并未较大程度带动工业“三废”的排放,但工业“三废”的排放却在一定程度上促进人均GDP的增长.最后从产业结构调整,重点对经济增长影响显著的污染类型进行整治,因时制宜制定环境规制措施对湖北省生态文明建设提出对策建议.
Based on the 1999—2017 economic growth and environmental pollution data of Hubei Province,using the VAR model,the dynamic relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution was empirically tested through stationarity test,co-integration test,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition.The results show that during the study period there is a long-term and stable relationship between Hubei Province’s per capita GDP growth and industrial“three wastes”emissions.From the impulse response diagram,the mutual influence of the two variable systems is relatively strong in the early stage,and the influence in the middle and late stages slow down.The impact of per capita GDP growth has a negative inhibitory effect on the discharge of industrial waste and industrial waste water,and has a positive effect on the discharge of industrial waste gas,the impact of industrial waste and industrial waste gas emissions has a positive effect on the growth of per capita GDP.The impact of industrial waste water discharge has a negative inhibitory effect on the growth of per capita GDP.The growth of per capita GDP has a weaker effect on the discharge of industrial waste,industrial waste gas and industrial waste water;the discharge of industrial waste and industrial waste gas has a negative effect on the growth of per capita GDP.The driving effect is relatively strong.The per capita GDP growth has not greatly promoted the industrial“three wastes”emissions,but the industrial“three wastes”emissions have promoted the growth of per capita GDP to a certain extent.Finally,from the adjustment of industrial structure,the focus is on the economy.The types of pollution that have a significant growth impact will be remediated,and environmental regulations and measures will be formulated in accordance with the current conditions to put forward countermeasures and suggestions for the construction of ecological civilization in Hubei Province.
作者
胡伟博
刘嗣明
徐益平
涂玮
HU Weibo;LIU Siming;XU Yiping;TU Wei(College of Urban and Environmental Science, Central China Normal University and ResearchCenter of China Two-oriented Society Construction Reform Pilot Zone, Wuhan 430079, China)
出处
《湖北大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2022年第4期401-409,共9页
Journal of Hubei University：Natural Science
关键词
湖北省
经济增长
环境污染
VAR模型
脉冲响应分析
Hubei Province
economic growth
environmental pollution
VAR model
impulse response analysis
