摘要
过去几十年来,以美国、英国和法国为代表的先行工业化国家制造业比重快速下降到10%左右,而以日本、德国和韩国为代表的先行工业化国家制造业比重稳定在20%左右。这主要是因为制造业比重稳定组国家持续保持货物贸易顺差,在全球产业分工中为全球制造,采取金融抑制、市场保护、产业政策等手段促进工业发展,夯实制造业的发展优势,引导和规制产业对外转移。制造业比重稳定组和下降组代表着两种不同的发展路径,两种发展路径各有利弊。借鉴和参考何种路径需要结合和考虑我国的发展阶段及主要矛盾。当前,我国制造业比重出现下降的苗头,要高度警惕美国、英国和法国的发展路径对制造业比重下降的推动作用,借鉴日本、德国和韩国稳定制造业的主要做法和经验,但也不能简单照搬其发展路径,要结合我国的国情,实施有针对性的政策措施和配套改革,强化基础产业及工业基础设施、科技创新、人力资源和现代金融等对制造业的支撑,夯实和稳固制造业发展的产业生态和发展基础,保持我国制造业比重基本稳定。
In the past few decades,manufacturing proportion of the United States,the United Kingdom and France has dropped rapidly to about 10%,while manufacturing proportion of Japan,Germany and South Korea has stabilized at around 20%.The first reason is because Japan,Germany and South Korea continue to maintain a trade surplus in goods and manufacture for the world.The second reason is because they adopt financial restraint,market protection,and industrial policies to consolidate the development advantages of the manufacturing industry.The last reason is because they guide and regulate the transfer of industries to foreign countries.The stable group and the declining group represent two different development paths.Both development paths have their pros and cons.Which path to use for reference and reference needs to combine and consider China’s development stage and main contradictions.At present,the proportion of China’s manufacturing industry is showing signs of decline.It is necessary to be highly vigilant of the development paths of the United States,the United Kingdom and France to promote the decline of the proportion of the manufacturing industry.It is necessary to learn from the main practices and experience of Japan,Germany and South Korea to stabilize manufacturing proportion,but we cannot simply copy their development paths.We must implement targeted policy measures and supporting reforms in light of China’s national conditions.China should promote infrastructure,technological innovation,human resources,and modern finance,which can solidate and stabilize the industrial ecology and development foundation for the manufacturing industry.
作者
任继球
Ren Ji-qiu(China Academy of Macroeconomic Research,Institute of Industrial and Technological Economics of National Development and Reform Commission,Beijing 100038)
出处
《经济纵横》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第1期60-71,共12页
Economic Review Journal
基金
中国宏观经济研究院重点课题“新格局下稳定制造业比重问题研究”(编号:A2021041007)的成果。
关键词
制造业比重
国际经验
产业政策
创新发展
Manufacturing Proportion
International Experience
Industrial Policy
Innovation and Development
