摘要
新疆地区外向型经济发展关系到“新丝绸之路经济带”建设。经过方法比较,选择基于信息贡献率的指标筛选方法对新疆外向型经济进行科学合理的评价,得出新疆外贸依赖程度降低,进口水平提升,外向型经济区域发展差异减小和出口产品结构不断优化的结论;采用自回归移动平均模型进行预测,发现新疆外向型经济发展未来短期保持上升趋势。结合经济环境和评价及预测结果,给出政策建议。
The development of export-oriented economy in Xinjiang is related to the construction of the“New Silk Road Economic Belt”. After comparing methods, selecting the index screening method based on the information contribution rate to make a scientific and reasonable evaluation of Xinjiang’s export-oriented economy, it is concluded that Xinjiang’s foreign trade dependence has been reduced, the import level has increased, the regional development gap of the export-oriented economy has been reduced, and the export product structure has been continuously optimized. The conclusion of the conclusion: using the autoregressive moving average model to predict, it is found that the development of Xinjiang’s export-oriented economy will maintain an upward trend in the short term in the future. Combine the economic environment and the evaluation and forecast results to give policy recommendations.
作者
胡国良
郭富帅
Hu Guoliang;Guo Fushuai(School of International Economics and Trade,Xinjiang University of Finance&Economics,Urumqi Xinjiang 830012)
出处
《对外经贸》
2022年第5期29-33,共5页
FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS & TRADE
基金
国家社会科学基金“产业西移与中国(新疆)对周边国家优势产业培育研究”(项目编号:14BGJ040)
新疆财经大学校级科研基金项目“疫情下新疆外向型经济运行调查分析”(项目编号:XJUFE2021D004)。
关键词
信息贡献率
外向型经济
新疆
ARIMA模型
Information Contribution Rate
Export-oriented Economy
Xinjiang
ARIMA Model
