摘要
在供给侧改革背景下,从结构性权力理论的视角,选取中国大豆期货市场作为研究对象,利用2016-2019年大连商品交易所的黄大豆2号期货收盘价的月度数据,通过主成分分析法和多元线性回归模型对中国大豆期货定价的影响因素进行实证分析。研究发现:在供给侧改革政策下,大豆期货定价不同程度地受到生产性结构权力、金融结构权力、知识结构权力和安全结构权力4种结构的影响。同时,中国还存在由于生产性结构权力和金融结构权力导致的国内大豆期货市场价格波动不合理的现象。基于上述结论,提出了四点政策启示,以期为大豆期货市场极端风险的规避和供给侧结构性改革政策的优化提供参考。
In the context of supply side reform,the Chinese soybean futures market is selected as a research object from the perspective of structural power theory,and monthly data on the closing prices of yellow soybean futures No.2 from Dalian Commodity Exchange from 2016 to 2019 are used to empirically analyze the influencing factors on the pricing of soybean futures in China by principal component analysis and multiple linear regression models.FINDINGS:under supply side reform policy,pricing of soybean futures is affected to varying degrees by four constructs:productive structural authority,financial structural authority,knowledge structural authority and security structural authority.At the same time,there is a phenomenon of unreasonable price fluctuation of soybean futures in China due to produce structural power and financial structural power.Based on the above conclusions,four policy implications are proposed to provide reference values for the evasion of extreme risks in soybean futures markets and the optimization of supply-side structural reform policies.
作者
秦睿婷
宋怡梦
黄政和
卓俏青
Qin Ruiting;Song Yimeng;Huang Zhenghe;Zhuo Qiaoqing(International Business School,Jinan University,Zhuhai,Guangdong 510970)
出处
《粮食科技与经济》
2022年第2期35-41,共7页
Food Science And Technology And Economy
基金
国家级大学生创新创业训练计划立项项目(202210559104)。
关键词
供给侧改革
大宗商品
结构性权力
多元线性回归
主成分分析
supply-side reform
bulk commodity
structural power
multiple linear regression
principal component analysis
