摘要
在共同富裕的理念下,本文探索中国如何在不增加财政补贴总额的情况下,使多数城乡居民基本养老保险(居民保)的参保者在未来20多年里成为城镇职工基本养老保险(职工保)的参保者,从而使职工保覆盖绝大多数人、居民保成为与之配套的最低养老金。我们的数据分析发现:第一,控制了老年人口抚养比之后,中国公共养老金待遇支出占GDP的比重已经超过了美、日、德等国,财政补贴占财政预算收入的比重高于日本;第二,由于财政补贴主要给了职工保,所以部门间人均养老金收入差距远大于劳动收入差距,并且老年人收入的基尼系数远超美、日、德等国;第三,用全口径社平工资评估时,职工保的替代率实际上已经很高。因此,我们建议把给职工保的财政补贴逐步转移给居民保,把居民保的待遇提高到国际绝对贫困线水平,在解除居民保年轻人向职工保转移时所面临的二重负担基础上,增加职工保的缴费人数和缴费收入,实现职工保与居民保之间的良性循环。
This paper investigates how to encourage the present Social Pension(SP)population to become"Earnings-Related Pension(EP)people"without increasing total government budget transfers in the coming 20 or more years under the new orientation of common prosperity policy launched in August 2021 by the Chinese central government.Several key findings emerge from our examination of the data.First,after controlling for the old age dependency ratio,the share of total public pension benefit expenditures of the public pension scheme over GDP of China has more than surpassed many developed countries,such as Japan,the US and Germany,and others,and the share of the fiscal budget of government transfers to the overall public pension scheme in China is higher than that of Japan.Second,using the CHIP database we find that the gap between SP and EP pensions is much higher than the gap between the household earnings of these two groups in the form of wages and self-employment income.The reason is that government transfers mainly go to the EP households—who already have on average higher earnings and pensions.Third,the ratio of average pension to the average earning for people in the EP scheme has been largely underestimated because the average earning has been concerned only with the formal sector rather than that of the whole economy,despite the proportion of the insured from the informal sector in the EP scheme increasing from zero to close to fifty percent since 2000.Therefore,to achieve greater equity in the treatment of the two groups we propose a gradual process of reducing the subsidized EP benefit,and correspondingly increasing the subsidies to SP pensioners,which would free them from the present double burden costs,and also encourage younger workers in the SP scheme to increasingly move to the EP scheme.During this process—considering that more than half of the total labor force are currently in the SP pension scheme—additional contribution revenues from the previous SP workers would considerably contribute to relieving
作者
王新梅
詹鹏
Edward Palmer;Wang Xinmei;Zhan Peng(Uppsala Center for Labor Studies,Uppsala University,Stockholm 75120,Sweden;Center of Social Welfare and Governance,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)
出处
《社会保障评论》
CSSCI
2022年第1期65-77,F0002,共14页
Chinese Social Security Review
