摘要
天然林保护工程实施后内蒙古国有林区林业经济发生了较大波动,文章运用“常-常”法划分内蒙古国有林区林业经济发展的波动周期,并采用HP滤波法进行短期波动和长期趋势的分离。在潜在增长率逐年降低且呈负增长趋势的情况下,林业经济在不同周期的波动具有年均增长率差异大、波动幅度大、经济脆弱性强等特征。文章运用2003-2019年内蒙古森工集团19个林业局的面板数据,选取3个维度6个指标进行不同波动周期的随机效应回归,探究影响林业经济增长变动的主要因素,结果表明:(1)2001-2010年,木材采运在第一产业产值中的比例变化对林业经济增长具有非常显著的负向影响。(2)2011-2015年,第三产业结构比例变化对林业经济增长具有显著的正向影响,木材采运在第一产业产值中的比例变化对林业经济增长具有非常显著的负向影响。(3)2016-2019年,第三产业结构占比、木材采运在第一产业产值中的比例及资本要素投入的变化均对林业经济增长产生非常显著的正向影响。(4)从天然林保护工程实施以来的总体情况来看,木材采运在第一产业产值中的比例变化对林业经济增长呈现非常显著的负向影响,而除了第三产业结构占比和资本要素投入的变化对林业经济增长具有显著的正向影响外,劳动要素投入变化也对林业经济增长具有非常显著的正向影响。由此,文章提出在内蒙古国有林区继续推进林业产业结构调整、适度开展必要的木材采运业务、增加非林木产业投资、组织职工技能培训以及发展林下经济等政策启示,以实现国有林区林业经济的稳定增长。
After the implementation of the natural forest protection project,the forestry economy of the state-owned forest regions in Inner Mongolia fluctuated greatly.This paper used the"normal-normal"method to divide the fluctuation period of the forestry economic development of the state-owned forest regions in Inner Mongolia,and used the HP filter method to separate short-term fluctuations and long-term trends.With the potential growth rate decreasing year by year and showing a negative growth trend,the forestry economy had the characteristics of large differences in the average annual growth rate,large fluctuation range and strong economic vulnerability in different cycles.Using the panel data of 19 forestry bureaus of Inner Mongolia Forestry Industry Group from 2003 to 2019,this paper selected 6 indicators in 3 dimensions to carry out random effect regression of different fluctuation periods,and explored the main factors affecting the changes in forestry economic growth.The results showed that:(1)From 2001 to 2010,the proportion of timber mining and transportation in the output value of the primary industry had a very significant negative impact on forestry economic growth.(2)From 2011 to 2015,the change in the proportion of tertiary industry structure had a significant positive impact on the growth of forestry economy,and the change in the proportion of timber mining and transportation in the output value of the primary industry had a very significant negative impact on the growth of tertiary industry economy.(3)From 2016 to 2019,the proportion of the tertiary industry structure,the proportion of timber mining and transportation in the output value of the primary industry,and the changes in capital input all had a very significant positive impact on the growth of forestry economy.(4)Judging from the overall situation since the implementation of the natural forest protection project,the proportion of timber mining and transportation in the output value of the primary industry had a very significant negative impact on
作者
刘桂艳
武晓玉
包庆丰
徐玮
LIU Guiyan;WU Xiaoyu;BAO Qingfeng;XU Wei(School of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010010)
出处
《林业经济》
北大核心
2022年第1期5-16,共12页
Forestry Economics
基金
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目“林下经济生产效率对职工家庭收入的影响研究——基于内蒙古国有林区的实证”(编号:2020BS07007)
内蒙古哲学社会科学规划项目“内蒙古森林保险风险区划与保险定价研究”(编号:2020NDC060)
内蒙古农业大学人文社会科学重点项目“国有林区改革背景下内蒙古国有林区林下经济产业布局优化研究”(编号:2019DZ05)。
关键词
国有林区
经济波动
产业结构
HP滤波法
随机效应模型
state-owned forest regions
economic fluctuation
industrial structure
HP filter method
random effects model
