摘要
为了对光伏产业的环境影响、技术进步、经济成本进行系统分析,采用生命周期评价对光伏产业环境影响进行量化分析;基于评价结果,构建光伏产业技术进步评价模型并计算技术进步率;将光伏产业生产设备投资额结合环境影响评价结果计算成本下降率,同时梳理近年来的光伏电价补贴政策,计算补贴下降率;最后将光伏产业技术进步与经济成本进行综合分析。结果表明:生产1 kWp多晶硅光伏组件时光伏产业的环境影响潜值为83.83 Pt,高纯多晶硅、硅片、电池片和组件的环境影响潜值占比分别为43.05%、16.24%、14.84%和25.87%;以2016年为基准年,2017—2020年光伏产业技术进步率分别为5.20%、8.98%、12.48%和20.91%,成本下降率分别为-5.81%、-21.05%、-25.23%和-32.63%,补贴下降率分别为-15.60%、-30.36%、-40.46%和-51.33%;同期光伏补贴下降率大于技术进步率和成本下降率,技术进步速度和成本下降速度在2017年后较为同步,反映了补贴下降在一定程度上能够倒逼企业采用更先进的技术以降低成本。
To systematically analyze the environmental impact,technological progress and economic cost of the photovoltaic industry,firstly the life cycle assessment(LCA)was conducted to quantitatively analyze the environmental impacts of the industry.Based on the results of LCA,the technology progress assessment model of photovoltaic industry was constructed and the technology progress rates were calculated.Then the investments of equipment in photovoltaic industry were combined with the results of the environmental impact assessment to calculate the cost reduction rates.At the same time,the photovoltaic electricity price subsidy policies in recent years were sorted out to calculate the subsidy decline rates.Finally,the photovoltaic industry technological progress and economic cost were comprehensively analyzed.The results showed that the photovoltaic industry had an environmental impact potential of 83.83 Pt when producing 1 kWp polysilicon photovoltaic modules,among which high purity polysilicon,silicon wafer,cell and module accounted for 43.05%,16.24%,14.84%and 25.87%,respectively.Taking 2016 as the base year,the technological progress rates of the photovoltaic industry in 2017,2018,2019 and 2020 were 5.20%,8.98%,12.48%and 20.91%;the cost reduction rates were-5.81%,-21.05%,-25.23%and-32.63%;and the subsidy decline rates were-15.60%,-30.36%,-40.46%and-51.33%,respectively.During the same period,the decline rates of photovoltaic subsidies were greater than the rates of technological progress and cost decline.The rates of technological progress and cost decline were more synchronized after 2017,reflecting that the decline in subsidies could force companies to adopt more advanced technologies to reduce costs to a certain extent.
作者
武琛昊
孙启宏
段华波
李雪迎
黄蓓佳
满贺诚
李晓蔚
谢明辉
WU Chenhao;SUN Qihong;DUAN Huabo;LI Xueying;HUANG Beijia;MAN Hecheng;LI Xiaowei;XIE Minghui(Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences;School of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Shenzhen University;School of Environment and Architecture,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology)
出处
《环境工程技术学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第3期957-966,共10页
Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB1502804)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71974129)。
关键词
光伏产业
生命周期评价
技术进步
补贴变动
成本变动
photovoltaic industry
life cycle assessment
technological progress
changes of subsidy
changes of cost
