摘要
研究目的:基于新拍卖理论框架,探究住宅用地“两集中”新政的政策效果,为优化土地调控政策提供参考。研究方法:基于诺奖拍卖理论构建两阶段升价模型和多物品同步多轮加价模型进行均衡策略分析,采用双重差分法评估“两集中”新政对住宅用地出让价格的影响。研究结果:(1)在短期内,“两集中”新政使城市住宅用地出让单价仅提高0.087%∼0.407%,使城市住宅用地出让总价仅提高0.086%∼0.394%;(2)竞拍起始价设置越高,住宅用地成交单价和总价也越高;(3)联合竞价人在住宅用地市场上比单一竞价人更具有优势,是提高住宅用地出让价格的重要原因;(4)异质性研究表明,“两集中”新政主要影响了北京、上海、广州等一线城市的住宅用地市场,使一线城市住宅用地出让单价仅提高0.949%,出让总价仅提高0.955%,“两集中”新政对二线城市住宅用地出让单价和总价的影响均不显著;(5)城市供需结构和竞价人的短期非理性行为是抑制“两集中”新政平抑住宅用地出让价格效果的重要原因。研究结论:(1)严格设置最高限价和最高溢价率可促使竞价人理性竞拍;(2)适当提高保证金额度可促使竞拍价格逐渐趋于理性竞争;(3)加大对竞拍企业的资金监管,控制供给水平,能够维护市场总体稳定和平衡;(4)规范地方政府在出让土地中的变相提价弥补财政的行为,能够降低地方财政对出让土地收入的依赖性。
The purposes of this paper are to explore the effect of the“two-concentration”new policy on residential land based on the theoretical framework of new auction,and to provide the reference for optimizing land regulation policies.The research method is based on the Nobel-prize auction theory to construct a two-stage price increase model and a multiitem synchronous with multi-round price increase model to analyze the equilibrium strategy,and the dual difference method is used to evaluate the impact of the“two-concentration”new policy on the residential land price.The results show that:1)in the short term,the“two-concentration”new policy increases the unit price of urban residential land by 0.087%~0.407%and the total price of urban residential land by 0.086%~0.394%.2)The higher the initial bidding price is,the higher the transaction unit price and total price of residential land are.3)Joint bidder has more advantages than single bidder in the residential land market,which is an important reason for increasing the residential land price.4)Heterogeneity study shows that the“two-concentration”new policy mainly affects the residential land market in firsttier cities such as Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou,increasing the unit price of residential land leasing by 0.949%and the total price of residential land leasing by 0.955%,while the“two-concentration”new policy has no significant impact on the unit price and total price of residential land leasing in second-tier cities.5)The structure of urban supply and demand and the short-term irrational behavior of bidders are the important reasons to restrain the effect of“twoconcentration”new policy on suppressing the residential land price.In conclusion,1)rigorously setting ceiling price and premium rate can facilitate rational bidding behavior;2)appropriately increasing deposit rate can shift bidding price into rational competition one;3)enhancing capital regulation on bidding enterprises and controlling supply level can maintain stability and equilibrium
作者
张杰
王忠
范雨婷
ZHANG Jie;WANG Zhong;FAN Yuting(School of Urban Economics and Public Administration,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;Real Estate Registration Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100812,China)
出处
《中国土地科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第4期27-37,共11页
China Land Science
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“我国特大城市土地市场效率与政府调控效果研究”(14BGL122)
北京市社会科学基金项目“中央商务区产业发展报告(2022)——高端服务引领城市更新”(21JCB065)
自然资源部不动产登记中心项目“中地指数测算分析”(2018-SC-W08)。
关键词
新拍卖理论
“两集中”新政
住宅用地出让
双重差分
异质性分析
new auction theory
“two-concentration”new policy
residential land leasing
difference-in-differences model
heterogeneity analysis
