摘要
针对山东省农业病虫害的损失评估及预防需求,对近年来山东省玉米蓟马灾害进行风险评估与区划,以期为山东省生物灾害的防治提供一定的科学依据。在对2013—2019年山东省玉米蓟马的发生情况进行统计分析的基础上,依据山东省农作物病虫发生程度分级标准(DB 37/T232—1996),以地市为单元对玉米蓟马灾害的发生程度进行了定级,并以月为时间尺度统计发生程度频数;从病虫害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承载体易损性和防灾减灾能力4个方面的准则层,构建玉米蓟马灾害的风险评估指标体系,对玉米蓟马发生频数、玉米播种面积、玉米产量、人均GDP等指标项进行处理分析,引入云模型进行了指标权重计算,分别面向4个准则层进行了风险区划构建,并通过自然灾害风险指数法进行了山东省玉米蓟马灾害综合风险评估与区划。结果表明:山东省玉米蓟马灾害发生风险主要集中在中西部地区,其中,菏泽市为高风险区,聊城市、德州市、济南市、潍坊市为较高风险区。
In view of the damage assessment and prevention needs of agricultural pests and diseases in Shandong Province,the risk assessment and zoning of corn thrips disaster in Shandong Province in recent years were conducted to provide some scientific basis for the control of biological disasters in Shandong Province.Based on the statistical analysis of the occurrence of corn thrips in Shandong Province from 2013 to 2019,the occurrence degree of corn thrips disaster was graded according to the grading standard for the occurrence degree of crop diseases and insects in Shandong Province(DB37/T232-1996)using local cities as units,and the frequency of occurrence degree was calculated on a monthly time scale;the risk assessment index system of corn thrips disaster was constructed from the criterion layers of four aspects,namely,the risk of hazard factors,disaster-pregnant environment sensitivity,vulnerability of the carrier and the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity to analyze the index items such as frequency of corn thrips,corn sown area,corn yield,and GDP per capita;index weights were calculated using a cloud model,risk zones were constructed for each criterion layer,and a comprehensive risk assessment and zoning of corn thrips disaster in Shandong Province was carried out by the natural disaster risk index method.The results showed risk of corn thrips disaster in Shandong Province was mainly concentrated in the central and western parts of the province,among which,Heze City was the highest risk area,and Liaocheng,Dezhou,Jinan and Weifang were high risk areas.
作者
左亚男
季民
杨久涛
靳奉祥
ZUO Ya-nan;JI Min;YANG Jiu-tao;JIN Feng-xiang(Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266000,PRC;Shandong Agro-Technical Extension Center,Jinan 250014,PRC)
出处
《湖南农业科学》
2022年第3期57-63,共7页
Hunan Agricultural Sciences
基金
山东省重大科技创新工程项目(2019JZZY020103)。
关键词
玉米蓟马
灾害
风险评估
云模型
山东省
corn thrips
disaster
risk assessment
cloud model
Shandong Province
