摘要
本文基于《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)内容,在分析RCEP自身特征的同时,结合自2001年以来我国与其他RCEP成员的贸易数据,探究RCEP成员的区域贸易基础与特征,并据此考察RCEP达成给我国带来的经贸效应。研究表明:①整体而言,具有更高包容性的RCEP不仅减少了边境上贸易壁垒,更是各成员就知识产权、电子商务等新兴经贸议题达成共识的积极尝试。②RCEP成员整体对外贸易占全球贸易比重日趋上升,但多数成员处在全球价值链中下游,RCEP将通过原产地累积规则提高区域的上游竞争力。③RCEP将借助贸易互补进一步深化我国与多数成员的贸易往来,但未来可能会加剧我国与日韩等贸易结构相似国家的贸易竞争。④数值模拟结果表明,RCEP将对我国的产出、外贸、收入、社会福利等多个方面带来促进效应;在具体行业层面,除强化纺织、服装、农产品等代表性行业外,RCEP将对我国的汽车及零部件等行业产生一定冲击。
Based on the contents of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP),this paper points out the characteristics of RCEP,and combines the trade data of China and other RCEP members since 2001 to explore the regional trade foundation and characteristics of RCEP members.Besides,this paper analyzes economic and trade effects of RCEP on China.Research shows that:(1)on the whole,the more inclusive RCEP not only reduces trade barriers on the border but also is an active attempt reached by members on emerging economic and trade issues such as intellectual property and e-commerce;(2)the overall foreign trade of RCEP members is increasing in the proportion of global trade,but most members are in the middle-lower stream of global value chain,RCEP will increase the region’s upstream competitiveness through cumulative rules of origin;(3)RCEP will deepen China’s trade with most members through trade complementarity,but in the future,it may intensify trade competition with countries which have similar trade structure like Japan and South Korea;(4)numerical simulation results show that RCEP is beneficial to China’s output,foreign trade,income,social welfare,and other aspects.At the specific industry level,RCEP will bring challenges to auto and accessories sectors,in addition to strengthening representative industries such as textiles,clothing,and agricultural products.
作者
王孝松
周钰丁
WANG Xiaosong;ZHOU Yuding
出处
《国际商务研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第3期18-29,共12页
International Business Research
基金
中国人民大学科学研究基金项目“改革开放40年中国引进外资与对外投资演变研究”(项目编号:13XNI006)。
