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基于Logistic模型的多车道高速公路左侧硬路肩设置判据 被引量:1

Setting Criterion of Left Hard Shoulder of Multi-lane Expressway Based on Logistic Model
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摘要 为解决整体式多车道高速公路左侧硬路肩无明确设置条件的问题,从交通安全出发提出了左侧硬路肩设置判据.该判据分为两步:①分析左侧硬路肩主要作用,定义了受左侧硬路肩直接影响的变道事故,建立基于Logistic的变道事故率高低预测模型初步判断是否设置左侧硬路肩;②通过VISSIM仿真和SSAM安全评价对初步判断不建议设置的互通进行左侧硬路肩“有-无”交通冲突差异分析作进一步识别.将判据运用于广深高速改扩建,Logistic预测模型初步判断建议火村-萝岗等4个互通优先设置左侧硬路肩,VISSIM和SSAM结果显示初步判断不建议设置的互通左侧硬路肩“有-无”交通冲突减少比例小于10%,故条件受限时可不设置左侧硬路肩. In order to solve the problem that there is no clear setting condition for the left hard shoulder of the integrated multi-lane expressway,the setting criterion of the left hard shoulder was put forward from the perspective of traffic safety.The criterion is divided into two steps:①By analyzing the main functions of the left hard shoulder,the lane change accident directly affected by the left hard shoulder is defined,and the prediction model of lane change accident rate based on Logistic is established to preliminarily determine whether to set the left hard shoulder.②Through VISSIM simulation and SSAM safety evaluation,the interchange that is not recommended by preliminary judgment is further identified by analyzing the difference of“with-without”traffic conflict on the left hard shoulder.The criterion is applied to the reconstruction and expansion of Guangzhou-Shenzhen Expressway,and the Logistic prediction model preliminarily judges that the left hard shoulder should be set first for four interchanges,such as Huocun-Luogang.VISSIM and SSAM results show that the reduction ratio of“with-without”traffic conflicts on the left hard shoulder of interchange that is not recommended by preliminary judgment is less than 10%,so the left hard shoulder can not be set when the conditions are limited.
作者 林小媛 朱顺应 李维吉 肖文彬 王红 LIN Xiaoyuan;ZHU Shunying;LI Weiji;XIAO Wenbin;WANG Hong(School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China)
出处 《武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版)》 2022年第2期219-224,共6页 Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Transportation Science & Engineering)
基金 国家自然科学基金(71771183)。
关键词 多车道高速公路 左侧硬路肩 变道事故率 累计频率 LOGISTIC模型 multi-lane expressway left hard shoulder lane change accident rate cumulative frequency logistic model
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