摘要
为了探究GRAPES区域集合三维变分混合同化系统中“地形高度依赖水平局地化尺度方案”对台风预报性能的影响,以“苏迪罗”台风(2015)和“杜鹃”台风(2015)为例,开展了集合变分混合同化系统在台风中的应用试验,对比分析了“地形高度依赖水平局地化尺度方案”和非“地形高度依赖水平局地化尺度方案”集合变分混合同化后台风路径、强度以及台风所带来的降水的预报结果。试验结果表明,“地形高度依赖水平局地化尺度方案”下台风路径与实况更为接近,该方案可有效地减小台风的路径误差,但对台风强度改进效果不明显。“地形高度依赖水平局地化尺度”方案相较于非“地形高度依赖水平局地化尺度”方案,能一定程度减小台风降水预报的漏报现象,提高各降水量级的TS评分。总体来看,“地形高度依赖的水平局地化尺度”方案可提高台风的降水预报技巧,在一定程度上减小台风的路径误差。
This study explores the impact of the“topography height dependent horizontal localization scale scheme”in the GRAPES regional ensemble three-dimensional variational hybrid data assimilation system on the forecast performance of typhoons.Taking Typhoons Sudelor(2015)and Dujuan(2015)as examples,an application experiment of ensemble variational hybrid data assimilation system in these typhoons was carried out.Next,the forecast results of the typhoon track,intensity and precipitation caused by the typhoons were compared and analyzed by observing the“topography height dependent horizontal localization scale scheme”and the“non-topography height dependent horizontal localization scale scheme”of the ensemble variational hybrid data assimilation experiment.The results show that the typhoon track under the“topography height dependent horizontal localization scale scheme”is more similar to the actual situation,which can effectively reduce the track error of the typhoon,but the effect of the intensity is not obvious.In addition,compared with the“non-topography height dependent horizontal localization scale scheme,”the“topography height dependent horizontal localization scale scheme”can reduce the underreporting phenomenon of typhoon precipitation forecast to a certain extent,and improve the TS score of each precipitation level.In general,the“topography height dependent horizontal localization scale scheme”can be used to improve typhoon precipitation forecasting skills and reduce typhoon track errors to a certain extent.
作者
夏宇
张涵斌
陈静
陈良吕
刘昕
XIA Yu;ZHANG Hanbin;CHEN Jing;CHEN Lianglü;LIU Xin(Institute of Urban Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100089,China;WeatherOnline Institute of Meteorological Applications,Wuxi 214000,China;CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center,Beijing 100089,China;Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Chongqing 401147,China;Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 620225,China)
出处
《大气科学学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第2期257-267,共11页
Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506804)。
关键词
集合变分混合同化
局地化
台风
应用试验
ensemble variation hybrid data assimilation
localization
typhoon
application experiment
