摘要
基于构建的长江经济带“四水”与社会经济系统动力学模型,选用灵敏度大于5%的参数设置了16个不同的发展情景,并对不同情景进行了模拟和评价。研究结果表明:不同情景之间人均GDP相差较小;在社会经济子系统优先发展、水资源和水生态环境子系统常规发展情景下,废水排放总量、COD排放总量和氨氮排放总量最大,分别为4.37×10^(6)万t、2.56×10^(6)t和2.26×10^(5)t;在社会经济子系统常规发展、水资源和水生态环境子系统优先发展情景下,废水排放总量、COD排放总量和氨氮排放总量最小,分别为3.68×10^(6)万t、2.07×10^(6)t和1.82×10^(5)t;在社会经济子系统和水灾害子系统优先发展情景下,洪旱治理投资增加;在预测年份,区域整体水安全朝着更为安全的方向发展,在现状仿真情景下(情景1),到2035年水安全评价指数达到64分(等级4);对于单一子系统优先发展,它对区域整体水安全性的影响顺序由大到小排列依次为水生态环境>水资源>水灾害>社会经济。因此,社会经济子系统常规发展,水资源、水生态环境和水灾害子系统优先发展的模式为最优发展模式。
Based on the constructed‘four-water’,namely the water ecology,water environment,water resources and water disaster,and socio-economic system dynamics model of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,16 different development scenarios were set up by selecting parameters with sensitivity greater than 5%,and the different scenarios were simulated and evaluated.The results show that the difference in GDP per capita between different scenarios is small.The total wastewater,total COD and total NH_(3)-N emissions are the largest when the socio-economic subsystem is developed as a priority and the water resources and water eco-environment subsystems are developed as a routine,with 4.37×10^(4) million t,2.56×10^(6) t and 2.26×10^(5) t,respectively,and the total wastewater,total COD and total NH_(3)-N emissions are smallest when the socio-economic subsystem is developed as a routine and the water resources and eco-environment subsystems are developed as a priority,with 3.68×10^(4) million t,2.07×10^(6) t and 1.82×10^(5) t,respectively.Under the priority development scenario of the socio-economic and water disasters subsystems,the investment in flood and drought management increases.In the forecast year,the overall regional water security moves to a safer direction,and in the status quo simulation scenario(Scenario 1),the water security level can reach Level 4 in 2035.For priority development of a single subsystem,its impact on the overall water security of the region has a descending order:water eco-environment>water resources>water disasters>socio-economic.The model of conventional development of socio-economic subsystem and priority development of water resources,water eco-environment and water disasters subsystem is the optimal development model.
作者
杨丽
张睿齐
刘海军
王红瑞
赵自阳
YANG Li;ZHANG Ruiqi;LIU Haijun;WANG Hongrui;ZHAO Ziyang(Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology,College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;School of Mathematical Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2022年第4期1-7,25,共8页
Yangtze River
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC0408902)
引智基地项目(B18006)。
关键词
水生态
水环境
水资源
水灾害
系统动力学模型
情景设置
模拟评价
长江经济带
water ecology
water environment
water resources
water disaster
system dynamic model
scenario setting
simulation and evaluation
Yangtze River Economic Belt
