摘要
为合理评价滑坡稳定性及其变形潜势,利用层次分析法和德尔菲法构建滑坡稳定性评价体系,实现其稳定性评价;以相关向量机为理论基础,通过鸡群优化算法实现其模型参数优化,并利用马尔科夫链进行误差修正预测,以充分保证预测精度;最后,利用预测结果开展滑坡变形潜势分析,并结合稳定性评价结果,为滑坡灾害防治提供一定的理论指导.实例分析表明:滑坡整体稳定性评价得分为69.51分,属Ⅲ级稳定等级,即具基本稳定状态;同时,在变形预测过程中,通过数据去噪分解、递进优化处理、误差修正预测等,能有效提高预测精度,所得预测结果的平均相对误差小于2%,但外推预测显示,滑坡变形仍会进一步增加,变形潜势趋于不利方向发展.
In order to reasonably evaluate the landslide stability and its deformation potential, firstly, the analytic hierarchy process and Delphi method are used to construct the landslide stability evaluation system to realize its stability evaluation. Secondly, based on the theory of relevance vector machine, the parameters of the model are optimized by chicken swarm optimization algorithm, and the error correction prediction is carried out by Markov chain to fully ensure the prediction accuracy. Finally, the prediction accuracy is fully guaranteed by using the correlation vector machine based on the prediction results, the deformation potential of landslide is analyzed, and the stability evaluation results are combined to provide some theoretical guidance for landslide disaster prevention. The example analysis shows that: the overall stability evaluation score of landslide is 69.51, which belongs to grade Ⅲ stability, that is, it has a basic stable state. At the same time, in the process of deformation prediction, through data de-noising decomposition, progressive optimization processing, error correction prediction, etc., the prediction accuracy can be effectively improved, and the average relative error of the prediction results is less than 2%. In addition, the extrapolation prediction shows that the landslide deformation will still increase The deformation potential increases and tends to be unfavorable. Through this study, the stability and deformation potential of landslide are effectively mastered, which is worthy of popularization and application.
作者
赵瑛
王显彪
陈菊林
刘阳阳
杜文学
彭亮
ZHAO Ying;WANG Xianbiao;CHEN Julin;LIU Yangyang;DU Wenxue;PENG Liang(Qinghai Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology and Environgeology Survey Institute,Xining 810008,China;Hydrogeological&Geothermal Geological Key Laboratory of Qinghai Province,Xining 810008,China;Qinghai Zhongmei Geological Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Xining 810008,China)
出处
《三峡大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2022年第3期27-33,共7页
Journal of China Three Gorges University：Natural Sciences
基金
青海省中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(2021ZY014)。
关键词
滑坡
KALMAN滤波
稳定性评价
变形预测
变形潜势
landslide
Kalman filter
stability evaluation
deformation prediction
deformation potential
