摘要
[研究目的]决策的科学制定与顺利实施离不开情报工作对风险因素的全程跟踪、防范与控制,情报是决策失误风险防范的重要保障。通过引入信号分析理论,建立决策失误风险防范机制,帮助决策主体及时规避、控制、化解决策过程中的风险与危机。[研究方法]采用文献调研法、归纳法,探讨了决策失误风险信号的内涵与外延、失误信号的识别范围、区域及步骤。[研究结论]在引入信号分析的基础上,构建了决策失误风险防范的基本框架。
[Research purpose]Without full tracking,prevention and control of risk factors by intelligence work,decision cannot be well made and implemented.Intelligence is an important guarantee for preventing the risk of decision failure.Through the introduction of signal analysis theory,a risk prevention mechanism for decision-making errors is established to help decision-maker to avoid,control,and resolve risks and crises in the decision-making process.[Research method]This article uses the methods of literature interpretation and induction method to explore the connotation and extension of risk signal of decision failure and the identification scope,area and steps of risk signal.[Research conclusion]Based on the introduction of signal analysis,this article constructs a basic framework for risk prevention of decision failure.
作者
胡雅萍
董尹
Hu Yaping;Dong Yin(Population Research Institute, High-Quality Development Evaluation Institute, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210042;School of Economics and Management, Hefei University, Hefei 230601)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期22-28,共7页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“决策失误防范中的情报保障体系研究”(编号:16CTQ021)
安徽省社会科学规划一般项目“基于弱信号感知的预测型供应链安全情报服务体系研究”(编号:AHSKY2020D30)。
关键词
决策失误
决策失误风险
失误风险防范
信号分析
风险识别
防范框架
风险防范机制
decision failure
decision failure risk
failure risk prevention
signal analysis
risk identification
prevention system
risk prevention mechanism
