摘要
[研究目的]以分析解读美国国家情报委员会的全球趋势系列报告为基础,探讨如何提高中国国家安全战略情报评估的前瞻性,以适应未来的发展趋势和可能变化,更好地为国家安全需求需要服务。[研究方法]采用文本分析和比较、归纳的研究方法,对1997年以来美国国家情报委员会推出的全球趋势系列报告进行文本分析,总结其经验做法,归纳其特点和趋势。[研究结论]对中国国家安全战略情报评估的三点启示:一是致力于面向未来的技术研发和理论创新,保持对全球长期趋势动态的关注和理解;二是尊重情报评估的不确定性特点,为创新性研究营造宽松的环境氛围;三是形成连贯的情报评估系列产品,为国家安全决策和全球话语权提供战略支撑。
[Research purpose]Based on the analysis and interpretation of the U.S.National Intelligence Council's series of reports on global trends,it explores how to improve the forward-looking assessment of China's national security strategic intelligence to adapt the future development trends and possible changes,better serve the national security needs of China.[Research method]Using the method of text analysis,comparison and induction,the series of reports on global trends launched by the National Intelligence Council since 1997 have been interpreted and analyzed in text,and their empirical practices,characteristics and trends are summarized.[Research conclusion]First of all,we are committed to future-oriented technology research and theoretical innovation,maintain our attention and understanding of global long-term trend dynamics;Secondly,respect the uncertain characteristics of intelligence assessment,to create a relaxed environment for innovative research;Finally,a series of products for intelligence assessment will be formed to provide strategic support for national security decision-making and global discourse power.
作者
刘忠
戴美玲
Liu Zhong;Dai Meiling(Marxism College of Jimei University, Xiamen 361021)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期3-7,21,共6页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
2021年度福建省高校哲学社会科学研究项目“高校思政课教师研究专项”(编号:JSZS21002)
2020年度福建省高校“以马克思主义为指导的哲学社会科学学科基础理论研究”(编号:JSZM2020026)项目成果之一。
关键词
战略情报
战略情报评估
全球趋势报告
国家安全
国家安全战略
美国
strategic intelligence
strategic intelligence assessment
global trends report
national security
national security strategy
the United States
