摘要
在汇总2020年初受到COVID-19疫情严重冲击的武汉市3,397个居住区内共计25,244个确诊病例的地理分布信息,并结合多类型城市交通大数据的基础上,将武汉7个传统中心城区的93个街道作为研究对象,然后在空间异质性视角下构建OLS和GWR模型分析各街道的路网密度、道路可达性、轨道交通站点分布以及公交站点分布等4个典型交通驱动因素对于疫情传播的影响特征,并得出如下结论:(1)路网密度对于疫情传播的影响不显著;(2)轨道交通站点分布与疫情传播之间存在着显著的正相关性,轨道交通线路极有可能成为城市中疫情传播的“高速走廊”,而公交站点分布与疫情传播之间也存在正相关性,但其相关程度低于轨道交通站点分布;(3)道路可达性与疫情传播之间存在负相关性。最后探讨了相关交通优化措施,提出构建有效的城市交通“平疫转换”体系,并基于此加强城市的韧性交通建设。
Wuhan was severely hit by the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020.The city was overwhelmed by COVID-19 due to the poor residents’awareness of prevention in the early stages,massive population flows in the city,seriously delayed detections and long incubation periods of the virus after infection.Eventually,Wuhan had to be closed,making transportation almost paralysed in and out of the city.City prosperity is attributed to population flows.Transportation is the guarantee of population flows,but it might be a bridge for epidemic spreading.In this study,the influencing characteristics of various transportation factors on the epidemic’s spreading were analysed to provide quantitative references for the normal control of COVID-19 today.For this reason,the spatial distribution of definite cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan City to 15 February 2020 was summarised,involving 25,244 definite cases in 3,397 residential zones.Combined with the urban road network,the distribution of rail transit stations and distribution of bus stations in Wuhan City,93 streets in seven traditional central urban areas were chosen as research objects.Four transportation driving factors,including road network density,road accessibility,distribution of rail transit stations,and bus stations,were chosen as the research variables.First,the spatial correlation and concentration degree of the COVID-119 epidemic in Wuhan City were tested by global statistical analysis and corresponding local statistical analysis of the spatial correlation from the perspective of spatial heterogeneity.It is concluded that the spatial correlation of COVID-19 infection density is more significant in central urban areas of Wuhan City.On this basis,the ordinary least squares(OLS)model and the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model were further constructed to analyse the influencing characteristics of the above four typical transportation driving factors on the spreading of COVID-19.Some conclusions could be drawn.First,according to the OLS model analysis,influences of road n
作者
彭然
王竞钊
刘业浩
刘学良
PENG Ran;WANG Jingzhao;LIU Yehao;LIU Xueliang
出处
《南方建筑》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第4期78-87,共10页
South Architecture
基金
住房和城乡建设部科学技术计划项目(2021-K-137):基于大数据对突发重大公共卫生事件下的城市交通问题研究——以COVID-19疫情影响下的武汉市为例
西部绿色建筑国家重点实验室开放研究基金(LSKF202110):韧性理念下城市应对重大传染病疫情的交通问题及其优化措施研究
高密度人居环境生态与节能教育部重点实验室开放课题(2020030206):人口聚集型城市的交通体系在突发公共卫生事件中的应对策略研究——以COVID-19疫情影响下的武汉市为例
湖北省交通运输科技项目(2020-186-3-1):大数据背景下城市应对突发公共卫生事件的交通优化策略研究——以COVID-19疫情影响下的武汉市为例
武汉研究院开放基金(IWHS20212085):后疫情时代武汉韧性交通体系的构建研究。
