摘要
城乡养老保险统筹是缩小城乡养老差距,完善社会保障体系的重要环节,其有利于改进农村家庭福利水平,进而会对家庭经济活动产生重要影响。基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2015年和2017年两期面板数据,使用双重差分法评估了城乡养老保险统筹对农村家庭消费水平和消费结构的影响,研讨了背后的作用机制。研究发现:第一,从总量上看,城乡养老保险统筹使农村家庭总消费增加10.6%;从消费结构上看,农村家庭发展型消费提升24.8%,家庭教育消费、住房消费、衣物消费和交通通讯消费也显著增长,这表明城乡养老保险统筹显著优化了农村家庭的消费结构,增进了农村家庭福利。第二,异质性分析发现:城乡养老保险统筹对农村家庭消费的积极影响在东北部、东部、中部地区较为明显,西部农村家庭影响不显著,这反映出城乡养老保险统筹的过程需要因地制宜,精准施策。第三,机制分析表明,城乡养老保险统筹可能通过缓解农村家庭的预算约束以及降低预防性储蓄两条途径提高农村家庭的消费水平。研究结论可为政府部门进一步推动养老保险改革,促进农村家庭消费提供参考。政府应继续以城乡养老保险统筹作为新时期养老保险改革的重点,加大对农村地区的政策扶持力度,优化城乡养老保险的支付水平和支付结构。同时,养老保险统筹要进一步考虑区域发展差异,做到因地制宜,通过城乡养老保险统筹,使得农村家庭在基本的生存和发展消费问题解决之后向更高层次的消费水平迈进,从本质上提升人民群众的获得感和幸福感。
The amalgamation of urban and rural pension insurance is a vital link in the process of reducing the gap between urban and rural pensions and improving the general quality of the social security system,both of which are now underway.Increased well-being for rural households will have a substantial impact on their economic activities as a result of the change,which will have a positive impact on the economy as a whole.Using data from the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)collected in 2015 and 2017,the difference in differences method is used to examine the effectiveness of pension insurance pooling in rural and urban areas on the consumption levels and consumption structures of rural households and the underlying mechanism is also discussed.View from the perspective of total consumption,the findings of the study show that:Consider from the standpoint of total consumption,the total consumption of rural households increases by 10.6 percent.When it comes to consumption structure,rural families’developmental consumption increased at a pace of 24.8 percent,while consumption in other sectors like as education,housing,clothing,transportation,and communication also increase significantly.There has been a major improvement in rural households’consumption patterns as a result of the integration of urban and rural pension insurance,which has resulted in a significant improvement in their overall well-being.According to the findings of the heterogeneity analysis,the positive impact of the integration of urban and rural pension insurance on rural household consumption is more apparent in the northeastern,eastern and middle regions,whereas the consumption of rural households in western China has remained stagnant or declined over the past decade.In the case,it is demonstrated that the procedure for coordinating pension insurance in urban and rural areas must be tailored to the individual needs of each place and carried out efficiently.According to the findings of the mechanism analysis,the integration of urban-rural pensi
作者
乔晗
刘奥龙
QIAO Han;LIU Ao-long(School of Economics,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期110-119,共10页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“我国企业创新的风险投资驱动效应统计测度研究”(20CTJ013)
河南省科技攻关项目(农业领域)“农业全产业链大数据建设:理论探索、运行机制与发展战略”(202102110145)。
关键词
养老保险改革
农村家庭
双重差分法
消费效应
pension insurance reform
rural households
double difference method
consumption effect
