摘要
进入高等教育普及化深入发展阶段即“普及后阶段”后,中国高校在迎来发展机遇的同时也会面临不同的生存挑战。基于制度变迁理论,当外生条件发生变化时,高校的生存博弈规则将会发生流变:一是政府以重构财政安排转移财政压力,将会重塑高校财政经费配置格局;二是生源规模状况的转变,将倒逼高校实现市场博弈中的供需角色互换;三是以人工智能为代表的现代技术革新大潮,将打破传统高校的发展格局。而以上流变又会使高校在此非均衡的外生条件下持续地进行组织演化,具体呈现为高校的不同生存境遇以及由此而来的不同发展态势(发展壮大或衰落、消亡)。为此,无论是主管机构还是高校都应未雨绸缪,针对今后可能出现的问题,积极采取防范与应对措施。
After achieving popularization of higher education,Chinese universities are confronted with different survival challenges as well as development opportunities.The theory of institutional change proved that the exogenous conditions will change the game rules of universities survival situation.Firstly,in order to relieve fiscal pressure,the government will restructure fiscal arrangements,which will reshape the allocation of finances for universities.Secondly,the shrinking of student scale will force universities to make role exchange in the supply and demand market of higher education.Thirdly,the trend of modern technological innovation represented by artificial intelligence will break the development pattern of traditional universities.The above changes will make universities continue to undergo organizational evolution under this non-equilibrium exogenous condition,which is characterized by different survival conditions and development trends of universities.For examples,some universities may keep growing,while other universities go downhill or even end in closure.For this reason,both administrative authorities and universities should actively take precautions and measures to cope with problems that may arise in the future.
作者
罗志敏
杨浏祎
Luo Zhimin;Yang Liuyi
出处
《江苏高教》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期36-43,共8页
Jiangsu Higher Education
基金
国家社科基金项目“大学治理能力提升的机构逻辑与机构再设计研究”(20BGL232)。
关键词
普及后阶段
高校
制度变迁
博弈规则
组织演化
生存境遇
post-popularization of higher education
university
institutional change
game rules
organizational evolution
survival situation
