摘要
以常州市为例,探索了基于生态足迹模型的人口与经济承载规模预测。结果表明,常州市人均生态足迹从2009年(2.9707 hm;)到2014年(3.9941 hm;)呈增长趋势,年均增长率为6.10%。生态足迹以农地、化石能源用地和水域为主,林地最小;常州市人均生态承载力从2009年(0.3040 hm;)到2014年(0.2908 hm;)基本呈下降趋势,年均变化率为-0.73%。农地(55.32%以上)和建设用地(37.18%以上)为主要生态承载力供给,二者占总生态承载力的比重从2009年的94.33%增长到2014年的94.64%,水域和化石能源用地供给不足,可开发利用的林地面积不大;2009—2014年人均生态赤字增长趋势明显,生态压力的增长趋势与人均生态赤字基本保持一致,到2014年人均生态赤字为3.7382 hm2,生态压力指数为12.8551。主要生态赤字是农地和化石能源用地导致,建设用地是主要生态盈余来源。总体来看,常州市的土地需求超过生态承载力范围,需要进一步调整土地利用结构,优化国土空间格局。
Taking Changzhou city as an example,the population and economic bearing scale prediction were explored based on the ecological footprint model.The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint of Changzhou city increased from 2.9707 hm;in2009 to 3.9941 hm;in 2014,with an average annual growth rate of 6.10%.The ecological footprint was mainly agricultural land,fossil energy land and water area,and the smallest was forest land.The per capita ecological carrying capacity of Changzhou city basically showed a downward trend from 2009(0.3040 hm;)to 2014(0.2908 hm;),with an average annual change rate of-0.73%.Agricultural land(more than 55.32%)and construction land(more than 37.18%)contributed to the main ecological carrying capacity,and their proportion in the total ecological carrying capacity increased from 94.33%in 2009 to 94.64%in 2014.Water and fossil energy land supply was insufficient,and the area of forest land for development and utilization was not large.From 2009 to 2014,the per capita ecological deficit showed an obvious increasing trend,and the increasing trend of ecological pressure was basically consistent with the per capita ecological deficit.The percapita ecological deficit was 3.7382 hm2in 2014,and the ecological pressure index was 12.8551.The main ecological deficit was caused by agricultural land and fossil energy land,while construction land was the main source of ecological surplus.In general,the land demand of Changzhou city exceeds the scope of ecological carrying capacity,so it was necessary to further adjust the land use structure and optimize the spatial pattern of land.
作者
潘昱奇
李满春
姜朋辉
陈登帅
PAN Yu-qi;LI Man-chun;JIANG Peng-hui;CHEN Deng-shuai(School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210023,China)
出处
《湖北农业科学》
2022年第6期48-55,共8页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
基金
江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20180348)
国家自然科学基金项目(41801298)
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0504200)。
关键词
资源环境承载力
生态足迹
人口承载力
常州市
carrying capacity of resources and environment
ecological footprint
population carrying capacity
Changzhou city
