摘要
发展林业碳汇是应对全球气候变化及实现中国2060年碳中和的重要举措。基于改进的Faustmann-Hartman模型,以中国南方浙江、福建和江西三个省份杉木人工林为研究对象,使用时间序列模型拟合并预测中国碳排放权交易市场的碳汇价格,通过蒙特卡洛模拟确定最优轮伐期及碳汇收益。研究结果表明:(1)依次纳入木材收益、地上生物量碳汇收益和死亡有机质碳汇收益时,杉木人工林的最优轮伐期分别为21.85年、22.98年和22.88年;(2)上述三种情景下,林地期望价值的净现值分别为20408.20元/hm^(2)、24587.29元/hm^(2)和28101.11元/hm^(2);(3)全面考虑包含死亡有机质碳库在内的林业碳汇效益,能够稳定提高林地所有者收益约7.02%~21.61%。此外,应进一步考虑多轮伐期下税收政策及自然风险等因素对碳汇营林的影响,这是确定最优轮伐期和碳汇收益后续研究值得重视的问题。
Developing forestry carbon sequestration economy is an important measure to cope with global climate change and realize carbon neutrality in China by 2060.Based on the improved Faustmann-Hartman model,taking Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation in Zhejiang,Fujian and Jiangxi provinces in Southern China as research objects,this paper used the time series model to fit and predict the carbon price of China’s carbon emission trading market,and used Monte Carlo simulation to determine the optimal rotation period and the net present price of the land expectation value.The results showed that:(1)The optimal rotation periods of Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation were 21.85 years,22.98 years and 22.88 years respectively when timber revenue,aboveground biomass carbon sequestration revenue and dead organic carbon sequestration revenue were included in turn.(2)Under the above three scenarios,the net present values of the land expectation value were 20408.20 CNY/hm^(2),24587.29 CNY/hm^(2)and 28101.11 CNY/hm^(2),respectively.(3)Comprehensive consideration of forest carbon sequestration benefits including dead organic matter carbon pool can stably raise the income of forest owners by 7.02%-21.61%.In addition,it is necessary to further consider the impact of tax policy and natural risks on carbon sequestration under multiple rotation in the follow-up study of determining the optimal rotation period and carbon sequestration benefits.
作者
余智涵
宁卓
杨红强
YU Zhi-han;NING Zhuo;YANG Hong-qiang(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Research Center for Economics and Trade in Forest Products,NFGA,Nanjing 210037,China;Research Center for the Yangtze River Delta's Socioeconomic Development,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China)
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第3期753-768,共16页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72073064,71703069)。
