摘要
在影响风电功率预测准确率的因素中,气象预测数据源的选取和组合影响较大。基于广西A、B两个山地风电场2020年2月1日至3月15日15min实测风速、4种单一气象数据源及3种混合订正气象数据源的预测风速,分析不同气象预测数据源对风电场风速预测准确率的影响。结果表明,多种数据源混合订正预测结果总体优于单一气象数据源预测结果,在预测模型优化过程中可重点研究混合订正气象数据源的应用。同一气象数据源在不同场站预测效果不一致,并无绝对优势。高分辨率气象数据源预测效果不一定优于低分辨率气象数据源。
The selection and ensemble of meteorological data sources have a great influence on the factors that affect the accuracy of wind speed prediction. In this paper, 4 single meteorological data sources and 3mixed-revised meteorological data sources of mountainous wind farm A and B in Guangxi were used to analyze the RMSE of wind speed prediction during February 1 to March 15, 2020. The results show that the influence of different meteorological data sources on wind speed prediction accuracy of wind farms is mainly as follows:(1)The forecast accuracy of mixed-revised meteorological data sources is generally better than that of single meteorological data source, and the application of mixed-revised meteorological data sources can be mainly studied in the optimization process of prediction model.(2)The prediction effect of the same meteorological data source at different stations is inconsistent, and there is no absolute advantage.(3)The prediction effect of highresolution meteorological data sources is not necessarily better than that of low-resolution meteorological data sources.
作者
吴文倩
Wu Wenqian(Nanning Production and Operation Center of National Power Investment,Nanning 530000,China)
出处
《气象研究与应用》
2022年第1期31-35,共5页
Journal of Meteorological Research and Application
关键词
山地风电场
风速预测
准确率
气象预测数据源
对比分析
mountain wind farm
wind speed forecasting
accuracy
meteorological forecast data source
comparison and analysis
