摘要
旱灾是制约甘蔗高产高糖的主要自然灾害之一,研究甘蔗生长过程对气象干旱的响应机制是实现其旱灾风险智慧管理、提高中国蔗糖业发展的一个关键科学问题。该研究基于来宾市1979—2018年0.1°格点及地面气象站点的多源气象要素数据,计算逐日标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI)序列并分析气象干旱特征,借助DSSAT-Canegro模型开展了甘蔗生长过程及产量累积对各气象干旱情景的响应机制模拟。研究明晰了来宾市气象干旱在甘蔗不同生育期发生的强度、历时及频次差异,设置了反映实际的气象干旱模拟情景。敏感性分析筛选出DSSAT-Canegro模型的8个显著敏感参数,参数本地化的模型模拟结果与田间试验观测拟合的确定性系数均超过0.95。气象干旱强度越大、历时越长,对区域甘蔗的产量、茎高、叶面积指数、冠层蒸散发等的抑制作用越强;其中,叶面积指数在茎伸长期的响应最敏感。甘蔗苗期发生轻旱、成熟期发生轻旱、中旱及重旱等均对蔗茎产量累积有一定促进作用,但增产不超过5%;发现30 d的气象干旱历时阈值,可划分蔗茎产量累积响应从增产转为减产(苗期轻旱)、减产变化由弱转强(苗期中旱)的效应;茎伸长期发生各强度气象干旱均对蔗茎产量累积有显著抑制作用,导致减产率分别达到7.12%(轻旱)、16.48%(中旱)、18.80%(重旱)、29.05%(特旱)。该研究明晰了蔗茎产量累积响应各种气象干旱情景的定量映射关系,可为揭示来宾市气象干旱-土壤水分-甘蔗长势的旱灾链式传递机理,实现区域旱灾动态风险模拟、调控及多阶段预警提供科学支撑。
Meteorological drought has been one of the most serious natural disasters that restrict the high yield and sugar content of sugarcane in recent years.Therefore,it is a high demand to clarify the response mechanism of sugarcane growth to meteorological drought,further to realize the intelligent management of sugarcane drought risk for the sustainable development of the sugar industry.In this study,a daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)was calculated to determine the meteorological drought characteristics,including the spatial pattern of drought intensity,duration,occurrence frequency,and scenarios during sugarcane growth periods.The multi-source daily meteorological datasets were also collected from the China Meteorological forces Dataset(CMFD)with 0.1°grid point and the surface meteorological station observation in Laibin City,Guangxi Autonomous Region of China from 1979 to 2018.A DSSAT-Canegro model was selected to simulate the response mechanism of sugarcane growth and yield accumulation to various meteorological drought scenarios.The meteorological drought intensity,duration,and frequency were then determined in different sugarcane growth periods,thereby designing the actual possible meteorological drought scenarios.In terms of the model validation,eight significant parameters of the DSSAT-Canegro model were screened out by the sensitivity analysis,where the deterministic coefficients were all over 0.95 between the parameter localization model and field experiment.The simulation results show that the greater the meteorological drought intensity and duration were,the stronger the sugarcane growth inhibition appeared on the Stalk Fresh Mass(SFM),Stem Height(SH),Leaf Area Index(LAI),and evapotranspiration(ET).Therein,the sugarcane LAI was the response of the most sensitive parameters to the meteorological drought during the stem extension stage.The light meteorological drought occurred in the seedling or maturity stage,and the moderate or severe meteorological drought occurred in the m
作者
杨云川
张会娅
程禹灏
廖丽萍
杨家祯
邓思敏
谢鑫昌
Yang Yunchuan;Zhang Huiya;Cheng Yuhao;Liao Liping;Yang Jiazhen;Deng Simin;Xie Xinchang(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;Guangxi Provincial Engineering Research Center of Water Security and Intelligent Control for Karst Region,Nanning 530004,China;Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education,Nanning 530004,China;Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety,Nanning 530004,China)
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第2期119-130,共12页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41901132,51609041)
广西自然科学基金项目(2019GXNSFAA185015,2021GXNSFBA220025)。
关键词
模型
气象干旱
甘蔗
响应机制
蔗茎产量
models
meteorological drought
sugarcane
response mechanism
stalk fresh mass
