摘要
货币政策应遵循何种规则一直以来都是宏观经济学广泛争论的话题。通过梳理近年来中国人民银行的工具创新和政策操作轨迹,揭示现阶段我国货币政策数量型工具与价格型工具协调配合的调控事实,并以新凯恩斯模型为基础,构建一个量价混合调控下的四部门宏观经济系统,通过引入带有非对称偏好和区间调控目标的中央银行福利损失函数,求解出同时包含货币数量与价格变量的最优货币政策规则。通过数值模拟分析,得到混合型货币政策的宏观调控效果及方差分解结果,发现量价组合下的货币政策规则能够做到统筹兼顾,有效平抑产出波动、维持物价稳定和促进充分就业,是当前量价转轨时期中央银行宏观调控的有力工具。未来,应继续加强数量工具与价格工具的协调配合,充分发挥混合型货币政策统筹兼顾的优势,实现多维调控目标;丰富货币政策工具箱,完善金融机构主体自主定价机制,为未来实现货币政策的利率调控奠定基础。
Which rules monetary policy should follow has long been a widely debated topic in macroeconomics.This paper reveals the coordination between quantitative tools and price tools of China’s monetary policy at the present stage by sorting out the tool innovation and policy trajectory of the People’s Bank of China in recent years.Then,based on the new Keynesian model,a four-sector macroeconomic system under the hybrid control of quantity and price is constructed.By introducing the central bank welfare loss function with asymmetric preference and interval control objective,the optimal monetary policy rule with quantity variable and price variable is solved.Finally,based on the numerical simulation analysis,it is concluded that the hybrid control of monetary policy effect and variance decomposition results,finding that the combination of quantity and price of monetary policy can effectively reduce the output fluctuation and maintain price stability,promote full employment,the central bank of macroeconomic regulation and control of the powerful tools at present.In the future,the monetary authorities should continue to strengthen the coordination between quantitative tools and price tools,give full play to the overall advantages of the hybrid monetary policy,and achieve multi-dimensional regulation objectives.Meanwhile,we should further enrich the monetary policy toolbox,improve the independent pricing mechanism of financial institutions,and lay a foundation for the realization of monetary policy interest rate control.
作者
刘金全
郑荻
LIU Jin-quan;ZHENG Di(Quantitative Economics Center University,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)
出处
《经济体制改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期11-17,共7页
Reform of Economic System
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“健全目标优化、分工合理、高效协同的宏观经济治理体系的理论与实践研究”(21ZDA042)
国家社会科学基金后期资助暨优秀博士论文项目“中国经济周期波动的基本态势、收敛特征与经济政策调控机制研究”(20FJYB007)。
关键词
货币反应函数
新凯恩斯模型
政策模拟
福利损失
混合型货币政策
monetary reaction function
NK model
policy simulation
welfare loss
quantity-price mixed monetary policy
