摘要
近年来,随着我国债券市场快速发展,债券违约风险事件逐渐增多,对金融稳定带来一定挑战,加强债券违约风险监测预警,对于推动我国债券市场健康平稳发展具有重要意义。本文在详细梳理债券违约风险预警研究方法的基础上,采用反映企业盈利能力和偿债能力的净资产收益率、速动比率、利息保障倍数等指标作为企业债券违约的先行指标,构建企业债券违约logit预警模型,并结合模型结果,提出加强对重点领域风险的监测预警、完善债券违约应对处置措施、进一步加强债券市场体制机制建设等政策建议。
In recent years, with the rapid development of China’s bond market, bond default risk events are gradually increasing, which brings certain challenges to financial stability. Strengthening bond default risk monitoring and early warning is of great significance for promoting the healthy and stable development of China’s bond market. On the basis of combing the research methods of bond default risk early warning in detail, this paper adopts the indicators such as return on equity, quick ratio and interest guarantee multiple, which reflect the profitability and solvency of enterprises, as the leading indicators of corporate bond default, and constructs the logit early warning model of corporate bond default. According to the results of the model, some policy suggestions are put forward, such as strengthening risk monitoring and early warning in key areas, perfecting bond default response measures, and strengthening bond market mechanism construction.
出处
《西部金融》
2022年第1期3-8,共6页
West China Finance
关键词
企业债券
违约风险
金融稳定
Corporate bond
default risk
financial stability
