摘要
随着碳中和背景下以新能源为主体的新型电力系统的加速构建和社会环保意识的增强,火电机组需要在极端的工况下运行,但传统的机理建模很难实现对循环流化床锅炉床温的精准预测。基于平行控制系统理论构造与实际系统对应的虚拟系统,以计算试验的方式为实际系统的运行提供指导。虚拟系统构建采用基于时序注意力机制的长短期记忆(TPA-LSTM)神经网络模型,通过引入时序关注的注意力机制,提高传统的长短期记忆神经网络模型对工业过程中特定时序段的识别能力;采用灰度关联分析法对实际系统的数据进行筛选,提高了虚拟系统计算试验的准确性。实例分析结果表明,采用TPA-LSTM模型后,床温预测平均绝对误差为0.1317℃,平均百分比绝对误差为0.01429%,实现了对循环流化床锅炉床温的精准预测。
To pursue the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,with the accelerating development of renewable energy oriented power system and rising of environment protection awareness,thermal power units have to operate under extreme operating conditions.But the traditional mechanism modelling can hardly realize the accurate prediction on CFB boiler bed temperature.Based on parallel control theory,a real system can operate following the guidance of its virtual counterpart based on computational experiments.The virtual system takes Temporal Pattern Attention for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting(TPA-LSTM)model which can improve the traditional LSTM model's recognition ability of the temporal segments in industrial process by introducing temporal attention as the attention mechanism.Taking gray correlation analysis method to screen the data of the real system can improve the accuracy of the computational experiments of the virtual system.The analysis results show that the mean absolute deviation and mean absolute percent error of the predicted bed temperature can be reduced to 0.1317℃and 0.01429%.The model realizes the accurate prediction on CFB boiler bed temperature.
作者
刘文慧
严博文
吴江
任一君
孔维政
谌际宇
LIU Wenhui;YAN Bowen;WU Jiang;REN Yijun;KONG Weizheng;CHEN Jiyu(Gangue Thermal Power Plant of Inner Mongolia Mengtai Buliangou Coal Industry Company Limited,Jungar 010321,China;School of Control and Computer Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《综合智慧能源》
CAS
2022年第3期50-57,共8页
Integrated Intelligent Energy
基金
中国华电集团科技项目(CHDKJ21-02-161)。
关键词
碳中和
平行控制系统
长短期记忆神经网络
注意力机制
灰度关联分析法
虚拟系统
循环流化床
床温
carbon neutrality
parallel control system
LSTM neural network
attention mechanism
grey correlation degree analysis
virtual system
circulating fluidized bed
bed temperature
