摘要
基于脆弱性理论、房地产价格影响因素,构建了住房价格动态模型,采用动态面板GMM估计初步研究了我国2003—2020年经济基本面和预期因素对房价波动的影响,并采用门槛模型进一步分析了房价波动的内在稳定性。结果表明:预期因素在房价上涨中起主要推动作用,而收入、人口等基本面因素对房价的影响甚微,全国房地产市场呈现一定程度的脆弱性。门槛回归结果表明:房价波动存在一阶门槛效应,大部分省(区、市)的房价在门槛值上下的高增长和低增长状态转换较为频繁,动态揭示了房地产市场脆弱性的分化特征。
Based on the theory of vulnerability and the influencing factors of real estate price,this paper constructs a dynamic model of housing price,uses dynamic panel GMM Estimation to preliminarily study the impact of economic fundamentals and expected factors on house price fluctuation in China from 2003 to 2020,and further analyzes the internal stability of house price fluctuation by threshold model.The results show that:the expected factors play a major role in promoting the rise of house prices,while the basic factors such as income and population have little impact on house prices,and the real estate market shows a certain degree of vulnerability.The result of threshold regression shows that there is a first-order threshold effect in the fluctuation of housing price.Most of the provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities have frequent transitions between high growth state and low growth state above and below the threshold value,which dynamically reveals the fragility and differentiation characteristics of the real estate market.
作者
向为民
谢静
李娇
XIANG Wei-min;XIE Jing;LI Jiao
出处
《改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第3期87-100,共14页
Reform
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“二元均衡视角下房地产过度金融化及其治理研究”(20BJY072)
国家社会科学基金项目“基于时空异质的房地产市场反脆弱性长效机制研究”(19BJY069)。
关键词
房地产市场脆弱性
房价波动
经济基本面
vulnerability of real estate markets
house price fluctuation
economic fundamentals
