摘要
为提高应急志愿宣教水平,建立提高应急志愿宣教活动满意概率的规划路径,通过构建应急志愿服务活动流程图,以贝叶斯网络为基础,分析满意概率较高的活动规划,并估计规划因素权重。在224条规划路径中,有66条路径的活动满意概率为100%,满意概率92%以上的活动规划路径仅占32%,宣传方式、活动类型、活动内容、活动结束4个因素具有近似的分配权重。应急志愿组织开展宣教活动的效果差异性较大,通过有效规划,可减少无效投入,提高受众满意率。
To improve the service level of emergency voluntary propaganda and education and establish a planning path to improve the satisfaction probability of emergency voluntary education activities,by constructing the flow chart of emergency volunteer service activities,based on Bayesian network,the activity planning with high satisfaction probability was analyzed,and the weight of planning factors was estimated.Among the 224 planning paths,66 paths had a satisfaction probability of 100%,and only 32%had a satisfaction probability of more than 92%.The four factors of propaganda mode,activity type,activity content and activity end had similar distribution weights.There are differences in the effects of propaganda and education activities carried out by emergency voluntary organizations.Through effective planning,ineffective investment can be reduced and satisfaction can be improved.
作者
吕子阳
马英楠
王亚飞
付艳云
LYU Ziyang;MA Yingnan;WANG Yafei;FU Yanyun(Beijing Academy of Science and Technology,Beijing Research Center of Urban System Engineering,Beijing 100035,China;不详)
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》
2022年第1期52-55,104,共5页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFF0213300,2019YFC1511405).
关键词
应急志愿
规划
贝叶斯网络
应急志愿组织
满意概率
emergency volunteer
plan
Bayesian network
voluntary emergency organizations
satisfaction probability
