摘要
本文利用面板数据模型,为中国城镇化率的决定因素分析和未来趋势预测提供了一套新的方法。该方法在国际比较的视角下,基于跨国数据,首次区分了中国城镇化过程中的经济动力和改革动力,进而为中国新发展阶段城镇化率趋势预测中同时考察经济因素和改革因素的作用奠定了基础。利用本文提出的分析工具,实证分析表明:典型经济因素和体制改革因素都是中国城镇化率提升的重要动力,改革因素的贡献更为突出。本文预测2021-2035年中国城镇化率能够保持较快增长趋势,大约平均每年提高1.05个百分点,其中经济变量平均每年贡献0.43个百分点,体制改革贡献0.62个百分点,2035年城镇化率大约达到77.29%。本文研究结果无论对于宏观经济调控政策制定,还是对于“基本实现城镇化”远景目标的路径选择,以及构建新发展格局的决策部署,都具有重要的参考价值。
Using panel data model,this paper provides a new method for analyzing the determinants of China^urbanization rate and forecasting the future trend.From the perspective of international comparison and based on international data,this method distinguishes the economic driver and reform driver in the process of China’s urbanization for the first time,and lays a foundation for investigating the role of economic factors and reform factors in the trend prediction of China’s urbanization rate in the new development stage.Using the analysis tools proposed in this paper gives empirical evidences that both typical economic factors and system reform factors are important driving forces for the improvement of China's urbanization rate,and the contribution of reform factors is even more prominent.This paper predicts that China's urbanization rate will maintain a rapid growth trend from 2021 to 2035,with an average annual increase of 1.05 percentage points,of which the average annual contribution of economic variables is 0.43 percentage point,the contribution of system reform is 0.62 percentage point,and urbanization rate will reach around 77.29%in 2035.The research results have very important reference significance for the formulation of macroeconomic policies,the path selection of the long-term goal of“basically realizing urbanization”and the decision-making on the new development pattern.
作者
杜修立
张昱昭
Du Xiuli;Zhang Yuzhao
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期33-47,共15页
Statistical Research
基金
全国统计科学研究重大统计专项“经济高质量发展与关键领域改革研究”(2019ZX04)。
关键词
城镇化
面板数据模型
预测
国际比较
Urbanization
Panel Data Model
Forecasting
International Comparison
