摘要
压裂选井是决定致密油储层开发效果和经济效益的关键环节,具有高维、模糊、非线性的特点,常规的模糊综合评价方法主要依靠专家打分,在特征参数及井数较多的条件下难以确定参数权重。为此,提出融合层次分析法、灰色关联法、随机森林和模糊综合评判的致密油储层压裂选井组合方法,随机森林和灰色关联计算的权重向量可为层次分析法参数打分提供依据,解决了专家打分难的问题。首先,基于层次分析法建立压裂选井的层次结构模型,通过数据预处理计算特征变量的模糊关系矩阵;其次,分别采用灰色关联法和随机森林计算权重向量,并根据2种方法计算的权重向量为层次分析法的参数打分;最后通过模糊综合评判方法合成模糊关系矩阵和权重向量,得到综合评判结果,根据综合指标确定候选井。采用组合方法对X油田致密油储层进行压裂选井,候选井压裂后90 d的平均累计产量达到3032.1 t,比层次分析法、灰色关联法和现场经验法分别提高19.7%、10.6%和4.1%。结果表明,组合选井方法具有更高的可靠性和更好的增产效果,可以为致密油储层压裂选井提供更客观和科学的选井方案。
The selection of the fracturing well is a crucial point to determine the developed effects and economic benefits of the tight oil reservoirs,which is characterized by high dimension,fuzzy and non-linear properties.The conventional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE)method mainly relies on the expert scoring,and it is difficult to determine the weights of the parameters under the conditions of a large numbers of the characteristic features and wells.Therefore,a combined method of the candidate well for fracturing in the tight oil reservoirs is developed,which integrates the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),grey correlation(GC),random forest(RF)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE).The weight vectors calculated by RF and GC can provide the bases for AHP and solve the difficulty of the expert scoring.Firstly,the hierarchical structure model of the selection is established based on AHP,and the fuzzy relationship matrix calculating the characteristic variable is obtained by the data preprocessing.Then the weight vectors are calculated by the methods of GC and RF respectively,and the calculated vectors are used to score the parameter of the AHP.Finally,the fuzzy relationship matrix and weight vector are synthesized by the FCE method,and the comprehensive evaluated result is acquired,then the well selection is determined by the comprehensive index.The proposed combined method is used to select the fracturing wells in the tight reservoirs of Oilfield X.The average cumulative oil production of the candidatewells after fracuring in 90 days reached 3032.1 t,which is 19.7%,10.6%and 4.1%higher than those with the help of the AHP,GC and field experience methods respectively.The results show that the proposed combined method has much higher reliability and better simulated effects,and can provide more objective and scientific well selecting program for fracturing in the tight oil reservoirs.
作者
李雪晨
马新仿
肖凤朝
张士诚
LI Xuechen;MA Xinfang;XIAO Fengchao;ZHANG Shicheng(School of Petroleum Engineering,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China)
出处
《大庆石油地质与开发》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第2期147-156,共10页
Petroleum Geology & Oilfield Development in Daqing
基金
中国石油大学(北京)引进人才项目“致密砂岩复杂裂缝导流能力、力学—渗流分析研究”(RCYJ2017B-01-003)。
关键词
压裂选井
层次分析法
随机森林
灰色关联法
模糊综合评判
fracturing well selection
analytic hierarchy process(AHP)
random forest(RF)
grey correlation(GC)
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE)
