摘要
本文通过构建包含多部门和多元宏观政策的DSGE模型,对货币政策、财政政策和宏观审慎政策的最优反应规则及其协调组合问题进行了分析。分析结果显示:(1)从社会福利最大化的角度,货币政策可继续盯住通胀和产出的稳定,政府支出和税收政策可分别重点盯住产出稳定和债务稳定,而宏观审慎政策则可重点关注以信贷利差和信贷波动为代表的关键金融变量;(2)货币政策、财政政策和宏观审慎政策,通过合理的搭配和组合使用,能比任何单一政策工具都具有更好的经济金融稳定效应;反之,政策之间的不协调将显著削弱彼此的调控效应,加大经济和金融波动,从而导致显著的社会福利损失;(3)从多种政策协调搭配产生“合力”的内在机制来看,财政政策主要通过增加对产出、通胀、就业和债务等变量的稳定效应,对货币政策产生额外助力,而宏观审慎政策则主要通过稳定金融体系和降低金融风险对货币政策产生助力。上述结论表明,在多种经济金融政策并存的情况下,基于良好设定的政策规则,同时加强政策各部门之间的协调合作,是确保多元政策产生积极合力的重要基础。
Summary:The 2008 global financial crisis showed that financial stability has a crucial impact on economic stability,which gives birth to macroprudential policy.Additionally,the European debt crisis has demonstrated that fiscal imbalance contributes to financial and economic instability,which ultimately leads to systemic financial and economic risks.It is necessary to enhance the coordination of monetary,fiscal,and macroprudential policies from a theoretical and practical perspective.This necessity stems from the highly endogenous relationships among the banking sector,public finance,and the real economy under the modern economic system,and the endogeneity of policy targets indicates the need for policy coordination and consolidation.The implementation of policy coordination,although straightforward from a theoretical perspective,is challenging in practice.For example,problems that present an extreme challenge to the China include(1)how policy rules should be set in the case of policy coordination,(2)whether the coordination mode should be changed when facing different shocks and fluctuations,and(3)under what circumstances policy conflicts or overlaps may arise and how these can be resolved.As the Chinese economy enters the“new normal,”the country's economic and financial systems face a transitionary period of structural reform,and there is an urgent need to consider how to better coordinate monetary,macroprudential,and fiscal policies.Therefore,this paper builds a DSGE model incorporating multiple sectors and multiple policies from a theoretical perspective and conducts a preliminary analysis of the optimal rules and coordination of monetary,fiscal,and macroprudential policies,which clarifies some basic theoretical problems and provides ideas for further research.The results show the following:(1)To achieve welfare maximization,monetary policy should target output growth and the inflation gap,government expenditure policy and tax policy should aim for output stability and government debt stability,respectivel
作者
马勇
吕琳
MA Yong;LV Lin(School of Finance/China Financial Policy Research Center,Renmin University of China;School of Finance,Renmin University of China)
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第1期1-18,共18页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“中国建设现代中央银行调控制度研究”(21ZDA044)资助。
关键词
货币政策
财政政策
宏观审慎政策
协调搭配
Monetary Policy
Fiscal Policy
Macroprudential Policy Policy
Coordination
