摘要
以基础设施为内容的“硬联通”是推动“一带一路”国家携手发展的内生动力,同时也是中国在“一带一路”国家投资的主要领域。中国对外直接投资正处于从“走出去”向“走上去”转型的关键时期,提高对外直接投资效率需要锚定方向。基于“一带一路”36个国家的面板数据,采用时变随机前沿模型与马尔科夫链,分析基础设施互联互通异质性对中国对外直接投资效率提高及潜力拓展的影响。研究发现:“一带一路”国家的通信、能源和公共服务基础设施联通水平提升能够显著提高中国对外直接投资效率,而交通基础设施联通水平提升暂未起到显著的促进作用;中国对外直接投资效率均值逐年攀升,在“一带一路”倡议提出后攀升趋势更为明显;但效率值较低,仍有较大增长空间,且各国间的差距在扩大,存在马太效应;现阶段中国在“一带一路”国家的对外直接投资潜力表现为开拓型与巨大型,存在长期增长空间。因此,深化中国与“一带一路”国家在设施联通建设方面的合作,引导中国企业向“一带一路”基础设施薄弱的国家进行投资,提高中国对外直接投资运转规模与效率,有助于实现中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的互惠共赢。
The“hard connectivity”taking infrastructure connectivity as the main content is the internal driving force for the joint development of BRI countries and a major area of Chinese investment.China’s OFDI is in the critical period from"going out"to"going up",and it is important for us to chart the course for improving the efficiency of OFDI.Taking 36 BRI countries as research samples,the authors use time-varying stochastic frontier model and Markov chain to analyze the impact of infrastructure interconnection heterogeneity on the efficiency improvement and potential expansion of China's OFDI.It is found that:the upgrading of communication,energy and public service infrastructure in the BRI countries can significantly improve the efficiency of China's OFDI,while the improvement of transport infrastructure connectivity has not played a significant role;the average efficiency of China's OFDI is increasing year by year,especially after the BRI was put forward;but the efficiency value is low,there is still a large room for growth,the gap between countries is widening,and there is a"Matthew effect".The potential of China's OFDI in the BRI countries is pioneering and huge,and there is room for long-term growth of OFDI.Therefore,deepening the cooperation between China and BRI countries in infrastructure connectivity,guiding Chinese enterprises to invest in countries with weak infrastructure,and improving the scale and efficiency of China's OFDI operation are conducive to achieving mutual benefit and win-win results between China and BRI countries.
作者
刘春艳
赵军
徐俊
LIU Chun-yan;ZHAO Jun;XU Jun(School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,Xinjiang,China)
出处
《中国流通经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第3期70-79,共10页
China Business and Market
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目“价值链分工视角下新疆融入‘双循环’新发展格局研究”(21BJY052)。
