摘要
21世纪以来,农业对外开放合作在进出口贸易、对外投资等方面取得了一定的成效,但同时也存在一定的风险,进行农业对外开放合作风险预警防范显得非常有必要。风险预警指标体系构建是否科学是农业对外开放合作风险预警防范的重要前提。为了克服指标体系构建的主观性,先对历史文献的指标进行频度分析以构建初步的指标体系,通过调查问卷让两组不同的专家对指标打分,根据其中一组专家的指标调查分值运用利克特量表法进行指标筛选,根据另外一组专家的指标调查分值运用主成分分析法进行指标筛选,最后运用D-S理论对利克特量表法得到的指标和主成分分析法得到的指标进行信息融合,从而得到相对科学合理的农业对外开放合作风险预警指标体系,为农业对外开放合作风险预警防范提供依据。
Since the 21 st century,agricultural opening-up cooperation has achieved some results in import and export trade,foreign investment and so on.But at the same time there are certain risks,it is very necessary to carry out early warning and prevention of the risk of agricultural opening-up cooperation.Whether the risk early warning index system is constructed scientifically is an important prerequisite for the early warning and prevention of risk in agriculture opening up to the outside world.In order to overcome the subjectivity of the index system construction,firstly the indexes of historical literature are analyzed frequently to construct the preliminary index system.Two different groups of experts were asked to score indexes through questionnaires.According to one of the experts’indicator survey score,the indexes are filtered by Likert scale method.According to another group of experts’index survey score,the indexes are filtered by principal component analysis method.At last,the D-S theory is used to integrate the indexes having filtered by using the former two methods,so as to obtain a relatively scientific and reasonable system of early warning index of agricultural opening-up cooperation risk,and to provide a basis for early warning and prevention of agricultural opening-up cooperation risk.
作者
朱春江
范郁尔
骆汝九
许强
朱荣
吴成洲
ZHU Chunjiang;FAN Yuer;LUO Rujiu;XU Qiang;ZHU Rong;WU Chengzhou(Lianyungang Technical College,Lianyungang 222006,China;Agricultural Foreign Economic Cooperation Center,Lianyungang,Jiangsu Province,Lianyungang 222000,China)
出处
《连云港职业技术学院学报》
2021年第4期8-17,共10页
Journal of Lianyungang Technical College
基金
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2019SJZDA033)
连云港市第六期“521高层次人才培养工程”(2021)。
