摘要
面对当前错综复杂的国内外形势,深入认识中国经济双循环的演变规律,将有助于加快建成双循环相互促进的新发展格局。为此,本文构建了经济双循环的多维测度指标,首次利用中国7年30省的投入产出表,考察了1987—2017年中国经济双循环的分布格局、依存强度、竞争优势以及内卷程度等特征,主要的发现有:(1)中国经济双循环始终保持着较强的集中化趋势,且在外循环中的集中化程度要大于在内循环中的集中化程度。(2)尽管对国际国内两个市场、两种资源的依赖程度均在增加,但经济内循环在中国的国民经济中始终占据主体地位。(3)中国经济内循环的竞争优势虽然有所提升,但依然呈现为低竞争劣势;中国经济外循环的竞争优势虽然相对较高,却表现出明显的下降趋势。(4)中国在经济双循环中的内卷程度呈现出下降的趋势,且1997年以来在经济内循环中的内卷程度始终小于在经济外循环中的内卷程度。
Facing the complex environment both at home and abroad,an in-depth understanding of the evolution law of China’s economic dual cycle will help to accelerate the establishment of a new development pattern that features positive interplay between internal circulation and external circulation.Thus,this paper constructs multi-dimensional measure indexes of economic dual circulation,firstly uses China’s input-output tables of 30 provinces in 7 years during 1987-2017 to explore the characteristics of the distribution pattern,dependence intensity,competitive advantage and involution degree of China’s economic dual circulation.The main findings are as follows:(1)The dual circulations of China’s economy have always maintained a strong trend of centralization,and the degree of centralization in the external circulation is greater than that in the internal circulation.(2)Although the dependence intensity of China’s economy on both domestic and international markets and two kinds of resources is increasing,the internal circulation has always occupied the dominant position in China’s national economy.(3)The competitive advantage of China’s economic internal circulation has improved,but it still presents a low competitive disadvantage.The competitive advantage of China’s economic external circulation is relatively high,but it shows an obvious downward trend.(4)The involution degree of China’s economic dual circulation has declined.And since 1997,the involution degree of the internal circulation is always smaller than that of the external circulation.
作者
丁晓强
张少军
Ding Xiao-qiang;Zhang Shao-jun
出处
《经济学家》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期74-85,共12页
Economist
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“省际贸易与经济增长:寻找新时代中国经济的新动能”(71873112)
国家自然科学基金重点项目“全球价值链视角下的国内区域分工与市场一体化研究”(71733003)
国家社会科学基金重点项目“中美经贸博弈背景下中国健全对外开放安全保障体系与提高自主发展能力研究”(20AZD102)。
关键词
经济双循环
分布格局
依存强度
竞争优势
内卷程度
Economic Dual Circulation
Distribution Pattern
Dependence Intensity
Competitive Advantage
Involution Degree
