摘要
为研究民航旅客运输量的变化对航空公司、机场及相关民航运行保障单位的影响,以2007年1月-2019年12月的我国国内旅客运输量为原始序列,运用ARIMA模型对旅客运输量做出预测。模型对原始数据的拟合情况良好,利用2019年后6个月真实值与预测值进行验证,结果表明该旅客运输量预测模型误差较小,能够对旅客运输量做出比较准确的预测。
In order to research on the impact of changes in civil aviation passenger traffic volume on airlines, airports and other related operation support departments, the volume of domestic passenger traffic of China from January 2007 to December 2019 is taken as the original sequence data, and the passenger traffic volume is predicted by using ARIMA model. The model fits the original data well, and verifies the real value and predicted value from July to December 2019.The results show that the model only has an acceptable system error and can make a relatively accurate forecast of the volume of passenger traffic.
作者
李黎莎
Li Lisha(Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618307,China)
出处
《科学技术创新》
2022年第4期9-12,共4页
Scientific and Technological Innovation
关键词
旅客运输量
ARIMA
预测
Passenger traffic volume
ARIMA
Prediction
