摘要
为了改善空气环境,政府大力推进煤改电工程的落地实施,电采暖负荷被大量采用。电采暖负荷具有功率大、与季节和气象关系紧密、负荷密度集中的特征,对配电网规划运行产生较大影响,文中主要从气象因素角度出发,通过分析电采暖负荷的典型特征,筛选了温度和湿度两个主要气象因素,并结合北京某煤改电工程实际数据,通过回归分析方法分别提取了温度和湿度两个因素对电采暖负荷的灵敏度系数,提出了以温度因素为主,湿度因素为修正的电采暖负荷预测方法,经与实测数据对比,证明该预测方法具有更高的精准度。
In order to improve the air environment,the government vigorously promotes the implementation of coal-to-electricity conversion project,and the electric heating load is widely used.Electric heating load has the characteristics of high power,closely related with season and meteorology and concentrated load density,which has a great impact on the planning and operation of distribution network.In this paper,from the perspective of meteorological factors,two main meteorological factors,temperature and humidity,are screened through the analysis of the typical characteristics of electric heating load.Combined with the actual data of a coal-to-electricity project in Beijing,the sensitivity coefficients of temperature and humidity factors to electric heating load are extracted by the method of over-regression analysis.A forecasting method of electric heating load based on temperature factor and humidity factor is proposed.Compared with the measured data,the proposed forecasting method has higher accuracy.
作者
郭占伍
张泽亚
周兴华
胡诗尧
马国真
贺春光
Guo Zhanwu;Zhang Zeya;Zhou Xinghua;Hu Shiyao;Ma Guozhen;He Chunguang(Economic and Technological Research Institute,State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Shijiazhuang 050000,China;Beijing Join Bright Digital Power Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100085,China)
出处
《电测与仪表》
北大核心
2022年第2期154-158,共5页
Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation
基金
国网河北省电力有限公司科技项目(SGHEJY00GH JS1900022)。
关键词
电采暖
气象因素
负荷预测
回归分析
electric heating
meteorological factors
load forecasting
regression analysis
