摘要
巴希尔政权在2010年大选中巩固了政治实力与统治合法性,2011年南北苏丹正式分立更是为其国家治理提供了相对稳定的实施环境。然而,仅仅八年后,统治苏丹30年的巴希尔政权在遭遇民众持续的抗议示威与军方的倒戈后迅速倒台。为分析背后原因,本文以国家与社会关系为视角考察苏丹的治理危机与政治变局。在国家层面,巴希尔的强权统治和对国内多项事务与关系的处理不当充分反映出强国家与弱治理的特征。在社会层面,巴希尔长期的高压统治及2011年后社会参与的逐步增多更诠释了弱社会与强参与的特点。2019年的政治变局是苏丹国家与社会关系相互作用的必然结果。在政治转型时期,过渡政府需努力提升国家治理能力,并有效控制社会力量可能带来的负面影响,从而构建更加和谐与统一的国家与社会关系,才能实现苏丹的长治久安。
The Bashir regime consolidated its political power and ruling legitimacy in the 2010 general election,and the formal separation of North and South Sudan in 2011 provided a relatively stable implementation environment for its national governance.However,only eight years later,the Bashir regime,which has ruled Sudan for 30 years,quickly fell after encountering continuous protests and defiance by the military.To analyze the reasons behind this,this article examines the governance crisis and political change in Sudan from the perspective of statesociety relations.At the state level,Bashir's power rule and improper handling of many domestic affairs and relations fully reflect the characteristics of a strong government and weak governance.At the social level,Bashir's long-term repressive rule and the gradual growth in social participation after 2011 have explained the characteristics of a weak society and strong participation.The political change in 2019 is the inevitable result of the interaction of the state-society relationship in Sudan.During the political transition period,the transitional government needs to work hard to improve the country's governance capabilities and effectively control the possible negative effects of social forces,so as to build a more harmonious and unified state-society relationship in order to achieve long-term stability in Sudan.
出处
《中东研究》
2021年第2期81-105,334,335,共27页
Middle East Studies
基金
中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所创新工程项目“中国对非洲关系的国际战略”的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
国家与社会关系
国家治理
社会参与
苏丹政变
State-society Relations
State Governance
Social Participation
Sudanese Coup
