摘要
IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第一工作组报告主要从以下几个方面的进展提升了我们对气候系统变化、气候变化原因以及预估未来气候系统变化等方面的认知,对过去气候变化及其与人类活动的关系有了更加清晰、可靠的认识。综合多重证据评估指出,全球气候正经历着前所未有的变化;包括极端事件在内的归因进展已把人类活动对气候系统影响的认识从大气圈扩展到水圈、冰冻圈和生物圈,进一步强化了人类活动影响全球和区域气候的认识;有关区域气候变化信息的内容更加丰富,与各行业和敏感地区的气候变化影响联系更加紧密,使这些信息能更好地为气候变化风险评估和气候变化区域适应提供支持;气候模式和约束预估方法的发展以及对气候敏感度认识的深化,减少了未来不同排放情景下全球地表温度(Global Surface Temperature,GST)、海平面上升和海洋热含量的变化预估的不确定性。这份最新报告对我国提升气候变化研究水平和防灾减灾应对能力具有十分重要的指导意义。
The IPCC Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)improves our understandings of the changes in climate system,the causes of the climate change,and the projected future changes and gives us a clearer and more reliable relationship between human activities and climate change,from the following progress.Comprehensive assessments based on multiple lines of evidence point out that climate across the globe is undergoing unprecedented changes;progress in detection and attribution including event attribution studies has expanded the understandings of human influence on the climate system from the atmosphere to the hydrosphere,cryosphere,and biosphere,further strengthening the understandings of human influence on global and regional climate;the content of relevant regional climate change information is richer,and it is more closely related to the impact of climate change in various industries and sensitive regions,providing strong support for better risk assessment and adaptation planning at regional scale;the improvement of climate models and constraint for projection and the deepened understandings of climate sensitivity have reduced the uncertainty of the projected changes in global surface temperature,ocean warming and sea level under different emission scenarios.This latest report shows great significance in providing guidance for China to improve the level of climate change research and the capability of disaster prevention and mitigation.
作者
翟盘茂
周佰铨
陈阳
余荣
ZHAI Pan-Mao;ZHOU Bai-Quan;CHEN Yang;YU Rong(State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《气候变化研究进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第6期629-635,共7页
Climate Change Research
基金
重点研发计划重大自然灾害监测预警与防范项目“中国区域重大极端天气气候事件的归因方法研究”(2018YFC1507700)。
关键词
气候变化
最新认知
归因
约束预估
Climate change
New understandings
Attribution
Constrained projection
