摘要
本研究的主要目的是利用1980—2017年的时间序列数据,研究国际汇款流入与南非贫困之间的因果关系。此项研究的动机来自两个方面:一是汇款在减贫和人类发展中日益增大的作用,二是汇款流入量的迅速增长。自1998年以来,南非的汇款流入量呈现出程度不同的上升趋势。以1998年为例,该国的汇款流入量增长了18.5%,在随后的1999—2017年间汇款流入保持稳定增长,平均增幅为25.3%。我们通过使用多元格兰杰因果关系模型得出的结果显示,当使用婴儿死亡率作为贫困的代理变量时,在短期内存在明显的从贫困到汇款的单向因果流动。然而,当家庭消费支出被用作代理变量时,在短期和长期内都没有发现普遍存在因果关系。本文讨论了政策含义。
The main objective of this study is to investigate the causality between international remittance inflows and poverty in South Africa using time series data from 1980 to 2017. The study was motivated by the increasing role of remittances in poverty reduction and human development on the one hand, and the burgeoning inflow of remittances on the other hand. Since 1998, South Africa remittance inflows have shown a more or less upward trend. As an example, in 1998, the country recorded an increase in remittance inflows of 18.5 per cent and later maintained a steady increase in remittance inflows with an average increase of 25.3 per cent during the period from 1999 to 2017. Using a multivariate Granger causality model, our results show that there is a distinct unidirectional causal flow from poverty to remittances in the short term when the infant mortality rate is used as a proxy for poverty. However, when household consumption expenditure is used as a proxy, no causality is found to prevail in both the short and the long term. Policy implications are discussed.
出处
《国际社会科学杂志（中文版）》
2021年第4期75-86,6,10,11,共15页
International Social Science Journal（Chinese Edition）
