摘要
大豆事关我国粮食安全和社会稳定,文章分析大豆进口下的内在机制和作用机理,同时剖析其对我国粮食安全、大豆产业发展和居民消费等方面的影响。以此为基础,提出促进我国大豆产业重质量发展的路径,运用1992~2019年的时间序列数据构建VAR模型,并结合定性分析方法进行研究。通过VAR模型的脉冲响应分析发现,进口大豆对于我国大豆种植区产生了强烈的负向导向激励,但在一定程度上促进我国大豆产量的提升;大豆产业对外依存度较高,并且面临着日益上升的成本压力和健康威胁。我国需要从扩大进口来源、加强农业技术研发和政策扶持以及寻求大豆替代产品等方面优化大豆供给结构,提升大豆供给能力。
Soybean is related to China's food security and social stability.This paper analyzes the internal mechanism and action mechanism of soybean import,and its impact on China's food security,soybean industry development and household consumption.On this basis,the paper puts forward the path to promote the quality oriented development of China's soybean industry,the time series data from 1992 to 2019 were used to construct VAR model,and combined with qualitative analysis method.The impulse response analysis of VAR model showed that the imported soybean had a strong negative guiding incentive to the soybean planting areas in China;but to a certain extent,it can promote the increase of soybean yield in China;soybean industry has a high degree of external dependence,and is facing increasing cost pressure and health threats.China needs to optimize the soybean supply structure and enhance the soybean supply capacity by expanding the source of imports,strengthening agricultural technology research and development and policy support,and seeking alternative soybean products.
作者
陈佳俊
高维新
Chen Jiajun;Gao Weixin(School of Economics,Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang,Guangdong,524088)
出处
《市场周刊》
2022年第1期85-89,共5页
Market Weekly
基金
广东省研究生示范课程建设项目“农产品贸易学”(项目编号:2019SFKC32)
广东海洋大学研究生优秀案例库建设项目(项目编号:202019)
广东海洋大学2019年人文社科重点项目“乡村振兴战略下广东农村金融扶贫效果的实证研究”(项目编号:2019-01)阶段性研究成果。
关键词
大豆进口
作用机制
外贸依存度
粮食安全
VAR模型
soybean import
mechanism of action
foreign trade dependence
food security
VAR model
