摘要
在全面推进乡村振兴、加快农业农村现代化过程中,研究构建农村现代化水平评价指标体系,定量评价和动态监测全国和各地农村现代化进程与水平,是一项具有重要意义的基础性工作。通过构建农村现代化水平评价指标体系,采用综合指数测度模型测度2010-2019年全国农村现代化水平指数,并预测了农村现代化水平未来的变化趋势。结果表明,2010年以来,全国农村现代化水平呈现持续上升趋势,2019年农村现代化水平指数为52.71,处于农村现代化起步阶段的中期。采用回归分析方法预测,2024年全国农村现代化水平指数将达到60.71,进入农村现代化起步阶段的后期;2033年达到75.25,进入基本实现农村现代化阶段。不同指标之间发展不均衡,表现出不同的优劣势,对各自隶属的上一级指标以及农村现代化整体水平具有不同方向、不同程度的影响。因此,研究认为加快推进农村现代化,应充分发挥优势指标的正向拉动作用,加快补强劣势指标的短板和弱项。
In the process of comprehensively promoting rural revitalization and accelerating agricultural and rural modernization,it is a fundamental work with important significance to study and construct the evaluation index system of rural modernization level,quantitatively evaluate and dynamically monitor the process and level of rural modernization in China.The evaluation index system of rural modernization level was constructed,and the comprehensive index measurement model was used to measure the national rural modernization level index from 2010 to 2019,and the change trend of rural modernization level in the future was predicted.The results showed that,since 2010,the modernization level of China's rural areas had continued to rise,and the modernization level index in 2019 was 52.71,which was in the middle of the initial stage of rural modernization.The regression analysis method was used to predict that the national rural modernization level index would reach 60.71 in 2024,and entered the later stage of the initial stage of rural modernization;in 2033,it would reach 75.25,entering the stage of basically realizing rural modernization.The development of different indicators was not balanced,showing different advantages and disadvantages,which had different directions and different degrees of influences on the upper level indicators and the overall level of rural modernization.Therefore,the study believed that to accelerate the rural modernization,full play should be give to the positive pulling effect of the advantageous indicators and the strengthening of the weak points and weaknesses of the inferior indicators should be accelerated.
作者
钱佰慧
陈思霖
徐洋
郭翔宇
QIAN Baihui;CHEN Silin;XU Yang;GUO Xiangyu(School of Econonics and Management,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;Modern Agricultural Development Research Center,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China)
出处
《农业经济与管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第6期39-49,共11页
Agricultural Economics and Management
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(18AJY016)
黑龙江省经济社会发展重点战略课题(21113)。
关键词
农村现代化
评价指标体系
水平测度
指标均衡性分析
rural modernization
evaluation index system
level measure
analysis of indicator balance
