摘要
本文通过理论模型的推导和实证模型的检验,系统考察了地方政府隐性债务影响金融风险的空间溢出效应。首先,通过构建以金融机构作为资金配置和风险传导的核心环节的理论框架,分析得到地方政府债务的扩张不仅通过对企业信贷的挤出效应和对金融机构资产选择的影响导致地区金融风险上升,而且会通过地区间的金融资源配置与竞争效应产生空间溢出效应,导致相邻地区的金融风险水平上升。其次,基于我国30个省、直辖市和自治区2012~2018年的面板数据,实证检验了地方政府隐性债务影响金融风险的空间溢出效应。实证结果表明:(1)地方政府隐性债务对金融风险存在显著的正向直接效应,即地方政府隐性债务的扩张会导致本地区金融风险水平的上升;(2)地方政府隐性债务对金融风险存在显著的正向间接效应,即地方政府隐性债务会对空间相邻地区产生外溢效应,导致空间相邻地区金融风险的上升;(3)地方政府隐性债务对金融风险的直接效应在经济上行时期要显著高于经济下行时期,与之相反,地方政府隐性债务对金融风险的间接效应则在经济下行时期作用大于经济上行时期;(4)地方政府隐性债务对金融风险的影响在沿海地区更多表现为间接效应,而在内地更多表现为直接效应。
Based on theoretical model and empirical analysis,this paper systematically investigates the spatial spillover effect of local government implicit debt on regional financial risks.Firstly,by constructing a theoretical framework where financial institutions are served as the core link of capital allocation and risk transmission,this paper finds that the expansion of local government debt not only leads to the rise of local financial risks,through the crowding out effect of enterprise credit as well as the influence on the risk preference for asset portfolios of financial institutions,but also produces spatial spillover effect through the allocation of financial resources and competitive effects between regions,resulting in the rise of financial risk level in neighboring areas.Secondly,based on the provincial panel data of China during the period from 2012 to 2018,this paper empirically examines the spatial spillover effect of local government implicit debt on regional financial risks.The empirical results show that:(1)the implicit debt of local government has a significant positive direct effect on local financial risks,that is,the expansion of local government implicit debt will lead to the rise of the financial risks;(2)the implicit debt of local government has a significant positive indirect effect on financial risks,that is,the implicit debt of local government will generate spillover effect on the adjacent areas,leading to the rise of financial risks in the adjacent areas;(3)the direct effect of local government implicit debt on local financial risks is more pronounced in the boom years than that in the bust years.On the contrary,the indirect effect of local government implicit debt on financial risks is greater in the bust years than that in the boom years;(4)the indirect effect of local government implicit debt on financial risks is more pronounced in coastal areas while the direct effect is more significant in the inland provinces.
作者
尹李峰
姚驰
Yin Lifeng;Yao Chi(Department of Finance,Xizang Autonomous Region,Lhasa 850008;School of Finance,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872)
出处
《浙江社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期14-26,155,156,共15页
Zhejiang Social Sciences
关键词
地方政府隐性债务
金融风险
空间溢出效应
local government implicit debts
financial risk
spatial spillover effect
