摘要
不确定性是水资源系统安全问题的主要来源,而风险和韧性是应对该不确定性的两种重要思维模式,因此有必要明晰二者的内涵与联系。鉴于此,首先,对水资源系统风险的内涵界定与评估方法进行梳理,并从系统论角度探讨风险的基本要素与特征,进一步指出了韧性理念产生的必要性;其次,从韧性的起源、提出与发展历程等方面阐述了韧性思维的主要理念与方法,并对韧性思维在水资源系统分析中的研究现状进行了总结;再次,重点探讨了水资源系统韧性的过程分解机理,将韧性归纳为抵抗性、恢复性和适应性3个循环连接的组成部分,并分析了三者的主要影响因素;最后,从关注视角、评价目标、主要因素、作用时机和思维转型等方面探讨了风险与韧性的关系。
Uncertainty is the main source of water resources system security problems,and risk and resilience are two important thinking modes to deal with this uncertainty.Therefore,it is necessary to clarify their connotation and relationship.In view of this,firstly,the connotation definition and assessment methods of water resources system risk are sorted out,and the basic elements and characteristics of risk are discussed from the perspective of system theory,and the necessity of the concept of resilience is further pointed out.Secondly,the main ideas and methods of resilience thought are elaborated from the origin,proposal and development process of resilience thought,and the research status of resilience thought in water resources system analysis is summarized.Thirdly,the process decomposition mechanism of water resources system toughness is discussed,which is summarized into three components of the cyclic connection of the resistance,resilience and adaptability,and the main influencing factors of the three are analyzed.Finally,the relationship between risk and resilience is discussed from the perspective of attention,evaluation objectives,main factors,action timing and thought transformation.
作者
王红瑞
杨亚锋
杨荣雪
邓彩云
巩书鑫
WANG Hongrui;YANG Yafeng;YANG Rongxue;DENG Caiyun;GONG Shuxin(College of Water Sciences,Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;College of Sciences,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan 063210,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
北大核心
2022年第1期1-8,共8页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51879010)
国家重点研究计划项目(2019YFC0408902)。
关键词
水资源
系统安全
不确定性思维
风险分析
韧性
water resources
system security
uncertainty thought
risk analysis
resilience
