摘要
技术创新对于就业而言是一把双刃剑,一方面,通过技术创新可以形成新的产业和经济生态,创造出更多新的就业机会;另一方面,技术创新又意味着新技术和设备对传统劳动力的有效替代,大量就业岗位将消失。文章通过构建就业弹性模型研究技术创新的就业创造效应和就业替代效应,并基于1980—2020年中国就业增长和技术创新方面的宏观数据,运用VAR模型对技术创新的动态就业效应进行实证分析。研究结果表明:就全国而言,短期内技术创新的就业替代效应大于就业创造效应,中期内就业替代效应和就业创造效应交替占据主导地位,表现为总体动态就业效应呈现出规律性的正负交替现象,长期内技术创新的就业创造效应和就业替代效应的作用力基本抵消,技术进步为中性技术进步;分区域来看,各阶段技术创新在不同省份具有不同的动态就业效应,就业效应的方向和强弱与各地区的经济发展水平、经济结构和市场化水平紧密相关。
Technological innovation is a double-edged sword for employment.On the one hand,technological innovation can form new industries and economic ecology and create more new employment opportunities;on the other hand,technological innovation means that new technologies and equipment can effectively replace traditional labor force,and a large number of jobs will disappear.This paper constructs an employment elasticity model to study the employment creation effect and employment substitution effect of technological innovation.Based on the macro data of employment growth and technological innovation in China from 1980 to 2020,this paper uses VAR model to make an empirical analysis of the dynamic employment effect of technological innovation.The results show that in the whole country,the employment substitution effect of technological innovation is greater than the employment creation effect of technological innovation in the short term.In the medium term,the employment substitution effect and employment creation effect alternately occupy the dominant position,which shows that the overall dynamic employment effect presents a regular positive and negative alternating phenomenon.In the long term,the force of the employment creation effect and employment substitution effect of technological innovation is basically offset,and technological progress is neutral technological progress;from a sub regional perspective,technological innovation has different dynamic employment effects in different provinces at each stage.The direction and strength of employment effects are closely related to the level of economic development,economic structure,and market-oriented level of each region.
作者
王国梁
吕晨炜
徐舒琪
WANG Guoliang;LÜChenwei;XU Shuqi(School of Economics,Hangzhou Dianzi University,Hangzhou 310018,China)
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期48-56,共9页
East China Economic Management
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“基于受益视角的基本公共服务均等化机理分析、非均等程度测评及均等化路径研究”(15YJC790102)
国家社会科学基金重点项目“基于产权共享的众创空间运行机制与实施路径研究”(17AGL008)。
关键词
技术创新
就业创造效应
就业替代效应
VAR模型
technological innovation
employment creation effect
employment substitution effect
VAR model
