摘要
RCEP成员国是中国对外投资的重要目的地,为促进中国与RCEP区域合作机制的走深走实,基于2008—2019年前RCEP 14个国家的面板数据,使用随机前沿引力模型,测算中国对各国的投资效率与潜力。结果表明:中国对前RCEP各成员国投资效率差异较大,平均投资效率最高的国家为澳大利亚,最低为新西兰;中国对新西兰、缅甸和柬埔寨的平均投资潜力位于前三名,对泰国的投资潜力最小;中国和东道国经济规模与双边汇率对中国在前RCEP成员国的直接投资具有促进作用;投资自由度、政治稳定、腐败控制和政府问责对投资效率具有负面影响。据此提出了政府应加强对RCEP成员国政治制度和投资环境的科学评估,加强RCEP协定与"21世纪海上丝绸之路"的联动合作,企业应结合投资目的选择投资区位等建议。
RCEP member countries are important destinations for China’s outbound investment.In order to promote the deepening and implementation of the regional cooperation mechanism between China and RCEP,based on the panel data of 14 countries from 2008 to 2019,this paper uses the stochastic frontier gravity model to measure the efficiency and potential of China’s investment in RCEP member countries.The results show that China’s investment efficiency in RCEP countries is quite different.The average investment efficiency in Australia is the highest,which in New Zealand is the lowest.The average investment potential in New Zealand,Myanmar,and Cambodia ranks in the top three,which in Thailand is the smallest.The economic scale and the bilateral exchange rate of China and the host country have a positive effect on China’s direct investment in RCEP member countries.Investment freedom,political stability,corruption control,and government accountability have negative effects on investment efficiency.According to the conclusions of the study,it is proposed that the government should improve the assessment of the political system and investment environment of RCEP member countries,strengthen the linkage and cooperation between the RCEP agreement and the"21 st Century Maritime Silk Road",and enterprises should choose investment locations based on their investment objectives.
作者
程云洁
张志芳
CHENG Yun-jie;ZHANG Zhi-fang(School of Economics,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,China)
出处
《兰州财经大学学报》
2021年第6期10-22,共13页
Journal of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘一带一路’倡议框架下中国新疆—阿拉伯海能源链构建研究”(18BGJ014)。
关键词
RCEP
中国
投资效率
投资潜力
随机前沿引力模型
RCEP
China
investment efficiency
investment potential
stochastic frontier gravity model
