摘要
针对铁路危险品运输系统的突发性及不确定性,提出基于熵权法—突变理论的系统安全评价模型。从安全系统工程理论出发,运用鱼骨图法从人、机、物、环、管5方面展开分析,构建4级铁路危险品运输系统安全评价体系。为避免人为赋权的弊端,利用熵权法对底层指标重要度排序,再用突变理论逐级递归计算突变级数值,得出系统综合评价的隶属度函数值。评价结果表明:2013—2016年铁路危险品运输系统总突变隶属值分别为0.9102、0.9158、0.9300、0.9402,属较安全区,符合系统实际安全状况。该方法具有一定的可行性及实用性,可作为铁路危险品运输体系安全评价的理论参考。
Aiming at the suddenness and uncertainty of railway dangerous goods transportation system,a system safety evaluation model based on entropy weight method catastrophe theory is proposed.Starting from the theory of safety system engineering,this paper uses fishbone diagram method to analyze the five aspects of human,machine,material,environment and management,and constructs a four level safety evaluation system of railway dangerous goods transportation system.In order to avoid the disadvantages of artificial weighting,the entropy weight method is used to rank the importance of the bottom indicators,and then the catastrophe theory is used to recursively calculate the catastrophe level value step by step,and the membership function value of the system comprehensive evaluation is obtained.The evaluation results show that:from 2013 to 2016,the total mutation membership values of railway dangerous goods transportation system are 0.9102,0.9158,0.9300 and 0.9402 respectively,which are relatively safe areas and in line with the actual safety situation of the system.This method is feasible and practical,and can be used as a theoretical reference for safety evaluation of railway dangerous goods transportation system.
作者
刘金芳
向万里
Jinfang Liu;Wanli Xiang(School of Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Institute of Modern Logistics,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《青海交通科技》
2021年第4期19-26,共8页
Qinghai Transportation Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(61563028)。
关键词
铁路危险品运输
熵权法
突变理论
指标体系
安全评价
railway transportation of dangerous goods
entropy weight method
catastrophe theory
index system
safety evaluation
