摘要
基于经济、社会、气候、环境等数据,借鉴DPSIR模型和主成分分析法构建多维度洪涝灾害脆弱性评价指标体系,采用随机森林建模为脆弱性指标赋权,用GIS空间分析技术和洪涝风险指数法,把洪涝灾害脆弱性划分为高、较高、中等、较低和低5个等级,分析了皖江地区2001—2016年洪涝灾害脆弱性时空变化特征。结果表明:皖江地区洪涝灾害脆弱性在空间分布上,2001与2011年分布格局类似,由南向北呈“低-高-低”间隔分布规律;2006年,由北向南逐渐减小;2016年,以长江为轴心,距离长江越近,脆弱性越高,皖江北部地区脆弱性最低。在时间序列上,高脆弱区、较高脆弱区、低脆弱区扩大;中等脆弱区、较低脆弱区缩小,皖江地区洪涝灾脆弱性整体呈上升趋势。
Based on the data of economy,society,climate,environment and so on and using for reference the DPSIR model and the method of principal component analysis,a multidimensional flood disaster vulnerability evaluation index system was constructed.The random forest(RF)model was employed to assign weights for indexes.GIS and flood-risk-index method were adopted to divide flood disaster vulnerability into five grades:higher,high,moderate,low and lower.Correspondingly,the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of flood disaster vulnerability were demonstrated in Wanjiang region from 2001 to 2016.The research conclusions were as follows.The spatial distribution pattern of flood vulnerability in Wanjiang Region in 2001 is similar to that in 2011,and the distribution pattern is low-high-low interval from south to north.In 2006,it gradually decreased from north to south.In 2016,with the Yangtze River representing the axis,proximity to the Yangtze River was associated with higher vulnerability,and the lowest vulnerability can be found in the northern part of Wanjiang region.In terms of time series distribution,the area of relatively higher vulnerability,high vulnerability and relatively lower vulnerability showed an increasing trend,while the area of medium vulnerability and low vulnerability showed a decreasing trend,and the overall vulnerability of flood disasters in Wanjiang region was gradually increasing.
作者
孙忠保
程先富
SUN Zhong-bao;CHENG Xian-fu(School of Geography and Tourism,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu 241002,China)
出处
《安徽师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2021年第6期551-559,共9页
Journal of Anhui Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41271516)
安徽省高校人文社会科学研究重点项目(SK2016A039)
武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室基金.
